Eagles vs Cowboys – Week 14 2023
PHI
DAL
PHI
AWAY
13@33
DAL BY 20
FINAL · WEEK 14
2023 SEASON
AT&T Stadium · Arlington, TX
DAL
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Philadelphia Eagles 13, Dallas Cowboys 33.
Going in, our model had favored Dallas Cowboys at 66% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 1 Cowboys.
Model confidence: DAL 66%Our line: DAL -5.5
ODDS
SPREAD
DAL -3.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
DAL -5.5
OUR LINE
COVERED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
DAL · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
66%
TEAM COMPARISON2023 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 14
+0.005Net EPA / play+0.220
+0.054 (8)Offense EPA / play+0.106 (3)
+0.049 (29)Defense EPA / play-0.114 (4)
45.9% (7)Offense success %47.4% (3)
GAME NARRATIVE
DAL B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked DAL. Projected margin: 5.5. Actual: 20. Off by 14.5 points but directionally right.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 16.5 points.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
PHI
Divisional 1-4 ATS (20%)
DAL
Divisional 5-1 ATS (83%)Road Favorite 4-1 ATS (80%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2023 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2023 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 14
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| PHI@DALW12 2025 | PHI 21, DAL 24 | PHI | L |
| DAL@PHIW1 2025 | DAL 20, PHI 24 | PHI | W |
| DAL@PHIW17 2024 | DAL 7, PHI 41 | PHI | W |
| PHI@DALW10 2024 | PHI 34, DAL 6 | PHI | W |
| DAL@PHIW9 2023 | DAL 23, PHI 28 | PHI | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 14 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSPHI vs DAL
Our model takes Dallas Cowboys at 66% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project DAL by 5.5. The market has DAL at -3.5.
Dallas Cowboys won, PHI 13, DAL 33. Our model had favored Dallas Cowboys at 66% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Dallas Cowboys at -3.5, meaning the book expects Dallas Cowboys to win by 3.5 points.
In Week 14, the Dallas Cowboys were without 1 player (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 52.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 47.1, 5.4 below the market.
Week 14 of the 2023 season, SUN 8:20 PM.
Dallas Cowboys, PHI 21, DAL 24 in Week 12 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2023 season, Dallas Cowboys: PHI +0.005 against DAL +0.220.
