Seahawks vs 49ers – Week 14 2023
SEA
SF
SEA
AWAY
16@28
SF BY 12
FINAL · WEEK 14
2023 SEASON
Levi's Stadium · Santa Clara, CA
SF
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Seattle Seahawks 16, San Francisco 49ers 28.
Going in, our model had favored San Francisco 49ers at 78% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 1 Seahawks, 6 49ers.
Model confidence: SF 78%Our line: SF -10.3
ODDS
SPREAD
SF -14.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
SF -10.3
OUR LINE
MISSED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
SF · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
78%
TEAM COMPARISON2023 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 14
-0.035Net EPA / play+0.255
+0.016 (11)Offense EPA / play+0.174 (1)
+0.051 (30)Defense EPA / play-0.082 (7)
43.9% (11)Offense success %51.1% (1)
GAME NARRATIVE
SF A+-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
NAILED IT
Model projected SF by 10.3. Actual: 12 points. The model was within 1.7 points of the real margin.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 4 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 2.5 points.
Another data point for the model. A+-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
SEA
No noteworthy trends
SF
Road Favorite 6-3 ATS (67%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
63°F
WIND
5 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2023 SEASON
SF
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2023 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 14
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| SF@SEAW5 2026 | SF 32, SEA 29 | SEA | L |
| SEA@SFW18 2025 | SEA 13, SF 3 | SF | L |
| SF@SEAW1 2025 | SF 17, SEA 13 | SEA | L |
| SEA@SFW11 2024 | SEA 20, SF 17 | SF | L |
| SF@SEAW6 2024 | SF 36, SEA 24 | SF | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 14 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSSEA vs SF
Our model takes San Francisco 49ers at 78% win probability, a Tier A+ pick. The margin models project SF by 10.3. The market has SF at -14.5.
San Francisco 49ers won, SEA 16, SF 28. Our model had favored San Francisco 49ers at 78% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has San Francisco 49ers at -14.5, meaning the book expects San Francisco 49ers to win by 14.5 points.
In Week 14, the Seattle Seahawks were without 1 player (Out or Doubtful) and the San Francisco 49ers were without 6 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 44.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 45.5, 1.0 above the market.
Week 14 of the 2023 season, SUN 4:05 PM.
San Francisco 49ers, SF 32, SEA 29 in Week 5 of 2026.
By net EPA per play over the 2023 season, San Francisco 49ers: SEA -0.035 against SF +0.255.
