2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
DEN @ LAC – Week 14 2023
DEN
LAC
DEN
AWAY
24@7
DEN +17
FINAL · WEEK 14
2023 SEASON
LAC
HOME
TIER B
PICK: LAC
PICK LOSTATS ✗
Model confidence: LAC 63%Projected margin: 2.3
LAC
PICK SIDE
-3.0
SPREAD
2.3
PROJ MARGIN
-154
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
LAC B-tier pick misses. DEN takes it.
MISSED
Model picked LAC but DEN won. Projected margin was 2.3 -- the model overestimated by 19.3 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 5 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 20.0 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -3.0 | LAC market line | |
| MODEL ML | -154 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | -162 | Lost · -$1.00 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
DEN
No noteworthy trends
LAC
Divisional 0-5 ATS (0%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2023 SEASON
DEN
Russell Wilson
QB
256.9SEASON PPR
Courtland Sutton
WR
190.2SEASON PPR
Javonte Williams
RB
179.2SEASON PPR
LAC
Keenan Allen
WR
278.9SEASON PPR
Justin Herbert
QB
234.2SEASON PPR
Austin Ekeler
INJURY REPORTWEEK 14
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| LAC@DENW18 2025 | LAC 3, DEN 19 | DEN | W |
| DEN@LACW3 2025 | DEN 20, LAC 23 | LAC | W |
| DEN@LACW16 2024 | DEN 27, LAC 34 | DEN | L |
| LAC@DENW6 2024 | LAC 23, DEN 16 | DEN | L |
| LAC@DENW17 2023 | LAC 9, DEN 16 | DEN | W |
WEEK 14 · OTHER GAMES