Broncos vs Chargers – Week 14 2023
DEN
LAC
DEN
AWAY
24@7
DEN BY 17
FINAL · WEEK 14
2023 SEASON
SoFi Stadium · Inglewood, CA
LAC
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Denver Broncos 24, Los Angeles Chargers 7.
Going in, our model had favored Los Angeles Chargers at 63% win probability, and the pick lost.
Out or doubtful: 3 Chargers.
Model confidence: LAC 63%Our line: LAC -4.5
ODDS
SPREAD
LAC -3.0
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
LAC -4.5
OUR LINE
MISSED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
LAC · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
63%
TEAM COMPARISON2023 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 14
-0.077Net EPA / play-0.088
-0.058 (20)Offense EPA / play-0.076 (24)
+0.019 (26)Defense EPA / play+0.012 (25)
42.1% (14)Offense success %41.0% (22)
GAME NARRATIVE
LAC B-tier pick misses. DEN takes it.
MISSED
Model picked LAC but DEN won. Projected margin was 4.5, the model overestimated by 21.5 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 5 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 20.0 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
DEN
No noteworthy trends
LAC
Divisional 0-5 ATS (0%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2023 SEASON
DEN
Russell Wilson
QB
256.9 SEASON PPR
190.2 SEASON PPR
179.2 SEASON PPR
LAC
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2023 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Denver BroncosPASSING
Russell Wilson3070 yd · 26 TD · 8 INT
RECEIVING
INJURY REPORTWEEK 14
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| DEN@LACW5 2026 | DEN 23, LAC 17 | DEN | W |
| LAC@DENW18 2025 | LAC 3, DEN 19 | DEN | W |
| DEN@LACW3 2025 | DEN 20, LAC 23 | LAC | W |
| DEN@LACW16 2024 | DEN 27, LAC 34 | DEN | L |
| LAC@DENW6 2024 | LAC 23, DEN 16 | DEN | L |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 14 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSDEN vs LAC
Our model takes Los Angeles Chargers at 63% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project LAC by 4.5. The market has LAC at -3.0.
Denver Broncos won, DEN 24, LAC 7. Our model had favored Los Angeles Chargers at 63% win probability, and the pick lost.
The market has Los Angeles Chargers at -3.0, meaning the book expects Los Angeles Chargers to win by 3.0 points.
In Week 14, the Los Angeles Chargers were without 3 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 45.0 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 43.1, 1.9 below the market.
Week 14 of the 2023 season, SUN 4:25 PM.
Denver Broncos, DEN 23, LAC 17 in Week 5 of 2026.
By net EPA per play over the 2023 season, Denver Broncos: DEN -0.077 against LAC -0.088.
