Broncos vs Chargers – Week 5 2026
DEN
LAC
DEN
AWAY
23@17
DEN BY 6
FINAL · WEEK 5
2026 SEASON
SoFi Stadium · Inglewood, CA
LAC
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Denver Broncos 23, Los Angeles Chargers 17.
Going in, our model had favored Denver Broncos at 72% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 2 Broncos, 8 Chargers.
A midweek injury update moved the Broncos from 69% to 72%.
Model confidence: DEN 72%Our line: DEN -7.8
ODDS
SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON2026 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 5
-0.041Net EPA / play-0.150
-0.066 (24)Offense EPA / play-0.207 (32)
-0.025 (14)Defense EPA / play-0.057 (6)
39.9% (26)Offense success %37.8% (29)
GAME NARRATIVE
DEN A-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
NAILED IT
Model projected DEN by 7.8. Actual: 6 points. The model was within 1.8 points of the real margin.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 5 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 2.5 points.
Another data point for the model. A-tier picks continue to track.
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
CLOSING LINE VALUE
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2026 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2026 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 5
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| LAC@DENW18 2025 | LAC 3, DEN 19 | DEN | W |
| DEN@LACW3 2025 | DEN 20, LAC 23 | LAC | W |
| DEN@LACW16 2024 | DEN 27, LAC 34 | DEN | L |
| LAC@DENW6 2024 | LAC 23, DEN 16 | DEN | L |
| LAC@DENW17 2023 | LAC 9, DEN 16 | DEN | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 5 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSDEN vs LAC
Our model takes Denver Broncos at 72% win probability, a Tier A pick. The margin models project DEN by 7.8. The market has DEN at -3.5.
Denver Broncos won, DEN 23, LAC 17. Our model had favored Denver Broncos at 72% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Denver Broncos at -3.5, meaning the book expects Denver Broncos to win by 3.5 points.
In Week 5, the Denver Broncos were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful) and the Los Angeles Chargers were without 8 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 41.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 45.7, 4.2 above the market, which our board calls an over.
Week 5 of the 2026 season, SUN 4:05 PM.
Denver Broncos, LAC 3, DEN 19 in Week 18 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2026 season, Denver Broncos: DEN -0.041 against LAC -0.150.
