DEN @ LAC – Week 5 2026
DEN
LAC
DEN
AWAY
OUR PICK
@
SUN 4:05 PM
WEEK 5 · 2026 SEASON
LAC
HOME
Model confidence: DEN 66%Projected margin: -2.9
DEN
PICK SIDE
+2.5
SPREAD
-2.9
PROJ MARGIN
+143
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
TEAM COMPARISON2025 SEASON
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2025 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
+0.138Net EPA / play+0.059
+0.050Offense EPA / play-0.024
-0.088Defense EPA / play-0.083
44.2%Offense success %43.1%
36.7%Defense success %
PROJECTED MARGINEVERY OUTCOME THE MODEL CONSIDERS LIKELY
WHY THIS PICK
DEN is our C-tier play in DEN @ LAC (Week 5, 2026). The model assigns 65.6% confidence and projects DEN by 2.9. Market spread sits at DEN +2.5.
MODEL CONVICTION
Split. The model leans this way with less conviction.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | +2.5 | DEN market line | |
| MODEL ML | +143 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML |
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2025 SEASON
DEN
B.Nix
QB
304.8SEASON PPR
C.Sutton
WR
219.7SEASON PPR
R.Harvey
RB
206.6SEASON PPR
LAC
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2025 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Denver BroncosPASSING
B.Nix3931 yd · 25 TD · 11 INT
RUSHING
J.Dobbins772 yd · 4 TD
R.Harvey540 yd · 7 TD
B.Nix356 yd · 5 TD
RECEIVING
C.Sutton74 rec · 1017 yd · 7 TD
T.Franklin65 rec · 709 yd · 6 TD
E.Engram50 rec · 461 yd · 1 TD
P.Bryant31 rec · 378 yd · 1 TD
VS
3,931PASSyds3,727
1,668RUSHyds
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| LAC@DENW18 2026 | — | DEN | — |
| LAC@DENW18 2025 | LAC 3, DEN 19 | DEN | W |
| DEN@LACW3 2025 | DEN 20, LAC 23 | LAC | W |
| DEN@LACW16 2024 | DEN 27, LAC 34 | DEN | L |
| LAC@DENW6 2024 | LAC 23, DEN 16 | DEN | L |
COMMON QUESTIONSDEN vs LAC
Who is favored in Denver Broncos at Los Angeles Chargers?
Our model takes Denver Broncos at 66% win probability, a Tier C pick. The margin models project DEN by 2.9. The market has DEN at +2.5.
When do the Denver Broncos and Los Angeles Chargers play?
Week 5 of the 2026 season, SUN 4:05 PM.
Who won the last Denver Broncos vs Los Angeles Chargers game?
Denver Broncos, 3-19 in Week 18 of 2025.
Which team has been better, the Denver Broncos or the Los Angeles Chargers?
By net EPA per play over the 2025 season, Denver Broncos: DEN +0.138 against LAC +0.059.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake — plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
