LAC @ DEN – Week 18 2025
LAC
DEN
LAC
AWAY
3@19
DEN BY 16
FINAL · WEEK 18
2025 SEASON
Empower Field at Mile High · Denver, CO
DEN
HOME
Model confidence: DEN 72%Our line: DEN -7.9
DEN
PICK SIDE
-14.5
MARKET SPREAD
-7.9
OUR LINE
-259
OUR ML
—
LIVE ML
COVERED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON2025 SEASON · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 18
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2025 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
+0.059Net EPA / play+0.138
-0.024Offense EPA / play+0.050
-0.083Defense EPA / play-0.088
43.1%Offense success %44.2%
41.4%Defense success %
GAME NARRATIVE
DEN A-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked DEN. Projected margin: 7.9. Actual: 16. Off by 8.1 points but directionally right.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 1.5 points.
Another data point for the model. A-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| SOURCE | LAC | DEN |
|---|---|---|
| Closing line | +900 | -1600 |
| Our fair price | +259 | -259 |
Our fair price carries no vig, so it is what the bet is worth, not what anyone will offer you.
SPREAD DEN -14.5 · nflverse market average, not one book's number
RESULT Won · +$0.12
OUR NUMBER
72%
MARKET, VIG REMOVED
90%
DIFFERENCE
-18%
Both figures are for DEN. The market number strips the margin out first, so the two sides are measured the same way.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
LAC
Divisional 5-1 ATS (83%)Road Favorite 1-4 ATS (20%)
DEN
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)Road Favorite 0-5 ATS (0%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
66°F
WIND
8 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2025 SEASON
LAC
J.Herbert
QB
286.9 SEASON PPR
K.Allen
WR
182.7 SEASON PPR
L.McConkey
WR
180.9 SEASON PPR
DEN
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2025 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Los Angeles ChargersPASSING
J.Herbert3727 yd · 26 TD · 13 INT
RUSHING
K.Vidal643 yd · 3 TD
O.Hampton545 yd · 4 TD
J.Herbert498 yd · 2 TD
RECEIVING
L.McConkey66 rec · 789 yd · 6 TD
K.Allen81 rec · 777 yd · 4 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 18
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| DEN@LACW3 2025 | DEN 20, LAC 23 | LAC | W |
| DEN@LACW16 2024 | DEN 27, LAC 34 | DEN | L |
| LAC@DENW6 2024 | LAC 23, DEN 16 | DEN | L |
| LAC@DENW17 2023 | LAC 9, DEN 16 | DEN | W |
| DEN@LACW14 2023 | DEN 24, LAC 7 | LAC | L |
COMMON QUESTIONSLAC vs DEN
QUESTIONS
Our model takes Denver Broncos at 72% win probability, a Tier A pick. The margin models project DEN by 7.9. The market has DEN at -14.5.
The model projects 46.3 combined points. The market total is 37.5.
Week 18 of the 2025 season, SUN 4:25 PM.
Los Angeles Chargers, DEN 20, LAC 23 in Week 3 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2025 season, Denver Broncos: LAC +0.059 against DEN +0.138.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 18 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
