2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
LAC @ DEN – Week 18 2025
LAC
DEN
LAC
AWAY
3@19
DEN +16
FINAL · WEEK 18
2025 SEASON
DEN
HOME
TIER A
PICK: DEN
PICK WONATS ✓
Model confidence: DEN 72%Projected margin: 6.3
DEN
PICK SIDE
-14.5
SPREAD
6.3
PROJ MARGIN
-806
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
COVERED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
DEN A-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked DEN. Projected margin: 6.3. Actual: 16. Off by 9.7 points but directionally right.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 1.5 points.
Another data point for the model. A-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -14.5 | DEN market line | |
| MODEL ML | -806 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | — | Won · +$0.12 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
LAC
Divisional 5-1 ATS (83%)Road Favorite 1-4 ATS (20%)
DEN
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)Road Favorite 0-5 ATS (0%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
66°F
WIND
8 MPH
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2025 SEASON
LAC
J.Herbert
QB
286.9SEASON PPR
K.Allen
WR
182.7SEASON PPR
L.McConkey
WR
180.9SEASON PPR
DEN
B.Nix
QB
304.8SEASON PPR
C.Sutton
WR
219.7SEASON PPR
R.Harvey
RB
INJURY REPORTWEEK 18
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| DEN@LACW3 2025 | DEN 20, LAC 23 | LAC | W |
| DEN@LACW16 2024 | DEN 27, LAC 34 | DEN | L |
| LAC@DENW6 2024 | LAC 23, DEN 16 | DEN | L |
| LAC@DENW17 2023 | LAC 9, DEN 16 | DEN | W |
| DEN@LACW14 2023 | DEN 24, LAC 7 | LAC | L |
WEEK 18 · OTHER GAMES