2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
CAR @ TB – Week 18 2025
CAR
TB
CAR
AWAY
14@16
TB +2
FINAL · WEEK 18
2025 SEASON
TB
HOME
TIER C
PICK: TB
PICK WONATS ✗
Model confidence: TB 60%Projected margin: 1.2
TB
PICK SIDE
-3.0
SPREAD
1.2
PROJ MARGIN
-154
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
TB C-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
NAILED IT
Model projected TB by 1.2. Actual: 2 points. The model was within 0.8 points of the real margin.
BAD BEAT
Missed the spread by just 1.0 point -- a bad-beat loss.
Another data point for the model. C-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -3.0 | TB market line | |
| MODEL ML | -154 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | — | Won · +$0.65 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
CAR
Home Underdog 5-2 ATS (71%)Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
TB
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
69°F
WIND
11 MPH
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2025 SEASON
CAR
B.Young
QB
218.0SEASON PPR
R.Dowdle
RB
216.3SEASON PPR
T.McMillan
WR
213.4SEASON PPR
TB
B.Mayfield
QB
271.9SEASON PPR
E.Egbuka
WR
195.7SEASON PPR
R.White
RB
INJURY REPORTWEEK 18
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| TB@CARW16 2025 | TB 20, CAR 23 | TB | L |
| CAR@TBW17 2024 | CAR 14, TB 48 | TB | W |
| TB@CARW13 2024 | TB 26, CAR 23 | TB | W |
| TB@CARW18 2023 | TB 9, CAR 0 | TB | W |
| CAR@TBW13 2023 | CAR 18, TB 21 | TB | W |
WEEK 18 · OTHER GAMES