Cowboys vs Giants – Week 18 2025
DAL
NYG
DAL
AWAY
17@34
NYG BY 17
FINAL · WEEK 18
2025 SEASON
MetLife Stadium · East Rutherford, NJ
NYG
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Dallas Cowboys 17, New York Giants 34.
Going in, our model had favored Dallas Cowboys at 68% win probability, and the pick lost.
Out or doubtful: 5 Cowboys, 6 Giants.
Model confidence: DAL 68%Our line: DAL -6.3
ODDS
SPREAD
DAL -3.0
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
DAL -6.3
OUR LINE
MISSED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
DAL · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
68%
TEAM COMPARISON2025 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 18
-0.070Net EPA / play-0.075
+0.097 (5)Offense EPA / play+0.012 (17)
+0.167 (32)Defense EPA / play+0.087 (25)
46.6% (6)Offense success %42.1% (25)
GAME NARRATIVE
DAL B-tier pick misses. NYG takes it.
MISSED
Model picked DAL but NYG won. Projected margin was 6.3, the model overestimated by 23.3 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 8 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 20.0 points.
COLD GAME
33°F at game time. Expect suppressed passing efficiency and lower scoring.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
DAL
Road Favorite 1-4 ATS (20%)
NYG
No noteworthy trends
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
33°F
WIND
7 MPH
COLD GAME
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2025 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2025 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 18
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| DAL@NYGW1 2026 | DAL 20, NYG 28 | DAL | L |
| NYG@DALW2 2025 | NYG 37, DAL 40 | DAL | W |
| NYG@DALW13 2024 | NYG 20, DAL 27 | DAL | W |
| DAL@NYGW4 2024 | DAL 20, NYG 15 | DAL | W |
| NYG@DALW10 2023 | NYG 17, DAL 49 | DAL | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 18 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSDAL vs NYG
Our model takes Dallas Cowboys at 68% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project DAL by 6.3. The market has DAL at -3.0.
New York Giants won, DAL 17, NYG 34. Our model had favored Dallas Cowboys at 68% win probability, and the pick lost.
The market has Dallas Cowboys at -3.0, meaning the book expects Dallas Cowboys to win by 3.0 points.
In Week 18, the Dallas Cowboys were without 5 players (Out or Doubtful) and the New York Giants were without 6 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 50.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 44.4, 6.1 below the market.
Week 18 of the 2025 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
New York Giants, DAL 20, NYG 28 in Week 1 of 2026.
By net EPA per play over the 2025 season, Dallas Cowboys: DAL -0.070 against NYG -0.075.
