Ravens vs Steelers – Week 18 2025
BAL
PIT
BAL
AWAY
24@26
PIT BY 2
FINAL · WEEK 18
2025 SEASON
Acrisure Stadium · Pittsburgh, PA
PIT
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Baltimore Ravens 24, Pittsburgh Steelers 26.
Going in, our model had favored Pittsburgh Steelers at 61% win probability, and the pick won.
Model confidence: PIT 61%Our line: PIT -3.7
ODDS
SPREAD
PIT +4.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
PIT -3.7
OUR LINE
COVERED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
PIT · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
61%
TEAM COMPARISON2025 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 18
+0.010Net EPA / play+0.007
+0.034 (12)Offense EPA / play+0.025 (16)
+0.024 (20)Defense EPA / play+0.018 (18)
44.6% (13)Offense success %44.0% (17)
GAME NARRATIVE
PIT C-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
NAILED IT
Model projected PIT by 3.7. Actual: 2 points. The model was within 1.7 points of the real margin.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 6 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 6.5 points.
COLD GAME
25°F at game time. Expect suppressed passing efficiency and lower scoring.
Another data point for the model. C-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
BAL
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
PIT
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)Home Underdog 3-2 ATS (60%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
25°F
WIND
3 MPH
COLD GAME
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2025 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2025 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 18
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| PIT@BALW14 2025 | PIT 27, BAL 22 | BAL | L |
| PIT@BALW16 2024 | PIT 17, BAL 34 | BAL | W |
| BAL@PITW11 2024 | BAL 16, PIT 18 | BAL | L |
| PIT@BALW18 2023 | PIT 17, BAL 10 | BAL | L |
| BAL@PITW5 2023 | BAL 10, PIT 17 | PIT | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 18 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSBAL vs PIT
Our model takes Pittsburgh Steelers at 61% win probability, a Tier C pick. The margin models project PIT by 3.7. The market has PIT at +4.5.
Pittsburgh Steelers won, BAL 24, PIT 26. Our model had favored Pittsburgh Steelers at 61% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Pittsburgh Steelers at +4.5, meaning the book expects Pittsburgh Steelers to win by 4.5 points.
Sportsbooks have this game at 41.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 44.8, 3.3 above the market.
Week 18 of the 2025 season, SUN 8:20 PM.
Pittsburgh Steelers, PIT 27, BAL 22 in Week 14 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2025 season, Baltimore Ravens: BAL +0.010 against PIT +0.007.
