2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
PIT @ BAL – Week 14 2025
PIT
BAL
PIT
AWAY
27@22
PIT +5
FINAL · WEEK 14
2025 SEASON
BAL
HOME
TIER B
PICK: BAL
PICK LOSTATS ✗
Model confidence: BAL 68%Projected margin: 4.8
BAL
PICK SIDE
-5.5
SPREAD
4.8
PROJ MARGIN
-221
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
BAL B-tier pick misses. PIT takes it.
MISSED
Model picked BAL but PIT won. Projected margin was 4.8 -- the model overestimated by 9.8 points.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 10.5 points.
DRAMATIC
The win probability swung past 50% 1 time. A competitive game throughout.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -5.5 | BAL market line | |
| MODEL ML | -221 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | — | Lost · -$1.00 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
PIT
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)Home Underdog 3-2 ATS (60%)
BAL
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
44°F
WIND
6 MPH
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2025 SEASON
PIT
A.Rodgers
QB
227.1SEASON PPR
K.Gainwell
RB
221.3SEASON PPR
J.Warren
RB
217.1SEASON PPR
BAL
D.Henry
RB
279.5SEASON PPR
Z.Flowers
WR
243.3SEASON PPR
L.Jackson
QB
INJURY REPORTWEEK 14
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| BAL@PITW18 2025 | BAL 24, PIT 26 | PIT | W |
| PIT@BALW16 2024 | PIT 17, BAL 34 | BAL | W |
| BAL@PITW11 2024 | BAL 16, PIT 18 | BAL | L |
| PIT@BALW18 2023 | PIT 17, BAL 10 | BAL | L |
| BAL@PITW5 2023 | BAL 10, PIT 17 | PIT | W |
WEEK 14 · OTHER GAMES