Steelers vs Ravens – Week 14 2025
PIT
BAL
PIT
AWAY
27@22
PIT BY 5
FINAL · WEEK 14
2025 SEASON
M&T Bank Stadium · Baltimore, MD
BAL
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Pittsburgh Steelers 27, Baltimore Ravens 22.
Going in, our model had favored Baltimore Ravens at 68% win probability, and the pick lost.
Out or doubtful: 3 Steelers, 2 Ravens.
Model confidence: BAL 68%Our line: BAL -6.4
ODDS
SPREAD
BAL -5.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
BAL -6.4
OUR LINE
MISSED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
BAL · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
68%
TEAM COMPARISON2025 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 14
+0.007Net EPA / play+0.010
+0.025 (16)Offense EPA / play+0.034 (12)
+0.018 (18)Defense EPA / play+0.024 (20)
44.0% (17)Offense success %44.6% (13)
GAME NARRATIVE
BAL B-tier pick misses. PIT takes it.
MISSED
Model picked BAL but PIT won. Projected margin was 6.4, the model overestimated by 11.4 points.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 10.5 points.
DRAMATIC
The win probability swung past 50% 1 time. A competitive game throughout.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
PIT
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)Home Underdog 3-2 ATS (60%)
BAL
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
44°F
WIND
6 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2025 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2025 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 14
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| BAL@PITW18 2025 | BAL 24, PIT 26 | PIT | W |
| PIT@BALW16 2024 | PIT 17, BAL 34 | BAL | W |
| BAL@PITW11 2024 | BAL 16, PIT 18 | BAL | L |
| PIT@BALW18 2023 | PIT 17, BAL 10 | BAL | L |
| BAL@PITW5 2023 | BAL 10, PIT 17 | PIT | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 14 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSPIT vs BAL
Our model takes Baltimore Ravens at 68% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project BAL by 6.4. The market has BAL at -5.5.
Pittsburgh Steelers won, PIT 27, BAL 22. Our model had favored Baltimore Ravens at 68% win probability, and the pick lost.
The market has Baltimore Ravens at -5.5, meaning the book expects Baltimore Ravens to win by 5.5 points.
In Week 14, the Pittsburgh Steelers were without 3 players (Out or Doubtful) and the Baltimore Ravens were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 43.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 46.0, 2.5 above the market.
Week 14 of the 2025 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Pittsburgh Steelers, BAL 24, PIT 26 in Week 18 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2025 season, Baltimore Ravens: PIT +0.007 against BAL +0.010.
