Texans vs Chiefs – Week 14 2025
HOU
KC
HOU
AWAY
20@10
HOU BY 10
FINAL · WEEK 14
2025 SEASON
GEHA Field at Arrowhead · Kansas City, MO
KC
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Houston Texans 20, Kansas City Chiefs 10.
Going in, our model had favored Houston Texans at 50% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 2 Texans, 4 Chiefs.
Model confidence: HOU 50%Our line: HOU +0.0
ODDS
SPREAD
HOU +4.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
HOU +0.0
OUR LINE
COVERED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
HOU · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
50%
TEAM COMPARISON2025 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 14
+0.118Net EPA / play+0.055
-0.013 (21)Offense EPA / play+0.035 (11)
-0.131 (1)Defense EPA / play-0.020 (12)
41.3% (28)Offense success %44.5% (14)
GAME NARRATIVE
HOU C-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked HOU. Projected margin: 0.0. Actual: 10. Off by 10.0 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 3 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 14.5 points.
COLD GAME
27°F at game time. Expect suppressed passing efficiency and lower scoring.
Another data point for the model. C-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
HOU
No noteworthy trends
KC
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)Road Favorite 1-7 ATS (13%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
27°F
WIND
8 MPH
COLD GAME
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2025 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2025 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 14
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 3 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| HOU@KCW16 2024 | HOU 19, KC 27 | KC | W |
| KC@HOUW15 2022 | KC 30, HOU 24 | KC | W |
| HOU@KCW1 2020 | HOU 20, KC 34 | KC | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 14 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSHOU vs KC
Our model takes Houston Texans at 50% win probability, a Tier C pick. The margin models project KC by 0.0. The market has HOU at +4.5.
Houston Texans won, HOU 20, KC 10. Our model had favored Houston Texans at 50% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Houston Texans at +4.5, meaning the book expects Houston Texans to win by 4.5 points.
In Week 14, the Houston Texans were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful) and the Kansas City Chiefs were without 4 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 41.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 46.5, 5.0 above the market.
Week 14 of the 2025 season, SUN 8:20 PM.
Kansas City Chiefs, HOU 19, KC 27 in Week 16 of 2024.
By net EPA per play over the 2025 season, Houston Texans: HOU +0.118 against KC +0.055.
