Bengals vs Bills – Week 14 2025
CIN
BUF
CIN
AWAY
34@39
BUF BY 5
FINAL · WEEK 14
2025 SEASON
Highmark Stadium · Orchard Park, NY
BUF
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Cincinnati Bengals 34, Buffalo Bills 39.
Going in, our model had favored Buffalo Bills at 72% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 3 Bengals, 3 Bills.
Model confidence: BUF 72%Our line: BUF -7.7
ODDS
SPREAD
BUF -6.0
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
BUF -7.7
OUR LINE
MISSED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
BUF · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
72%
TEAM COMPARISON2025 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 14
-0.138Net EPA / play+0.152
-0.009 (19)Offense EPA / play+0.136 (3)
+0.130 (29)Defense EPA / play-0.016 (13)
45.5% (11)Offense success %48.5% (2)
GAME NARRATIVE
BUF A-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
NAILED IT
Model projected BUF by 7.7. Actual: 5 points. The model was within 2.7 points of the real margin.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 6 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
BAD BEAT
Missed the spread by just 1.0 point, a bad-beat loss.
COLD GAME
31°F at game time. Expect suppressed passing efficiency and lower scoring.
Another data point for the model. A-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
CIN
Home Underdog 2-3 ATS (40%)Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
BUF
Cold Weather 3-2 ATS (60%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
31°F
WIND
12 MPH
COLD GAME
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2025 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2025 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 14
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 1 MEETING
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| BUF@CINW9 2023 | BUF 18, CIN 24 | BUF | L |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 14 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSCIN vs BUF
Our model takes Buffalo Bills at 72% win probability, a Tier A pick. The margin models project BUF by 7.7. The market has BUF at -6.0.
Buffalo Bills won, CIN 34, BUF 39. Our model had favored Buffalo Bills at 72% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Buffalo Bills at -6.0, meaning the book expects Buffalo Bills to win by 6.0 points.
In Week 14, the Cincinnati Bengals were without 3 players (Out or Doubtful) and the Buffalo Bills were without 3 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 54.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 45.5, 9.0 below the market.
Week 14 of the 2025 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Cincinnati Bengals, BUF 18, CIN 24 in Week 9 of 2023.
By net EPA per play over the 2025 season, Buffalo Bills: CIN -0.138 against BUF +0.152.
