Bills vs Bengals – Week 9 2023
BUF
CIN
BUF
AWAY
18@24
CIN BY 6
FINAL · WEEK 9
2023 SEASON
Paycor Stadium · Cincinnati, OH
CIN
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Buffalo Bills 18, Cincinnati Bengals 24.
Going in, our model had favored Buffalo Bills at 58% win probability, and the pick lost.
Out or doubtful: 2 Bills, 1 Bengals.
Model confidence: BUF 58%Our line: BUF -2.6
ODDS
SPREAD
BUF +1.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
BUF -2.6
OUR LINE
MISSED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
BUF · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
58%
TEAM COMPARISON2023 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 9
+0.182Net EPA / play-0.044
+0.108 (2)Offense EPA / play-0.010 (12)
-0.074 (8)Defense EPA / play+0.034 (28)
49.0% (2)Offense success %44.0% (10)
GAME NARRATIVE
BUF B-tier pick misses. CIN takes it.
MISSED
Model picked BUF but CIN won. Projected margin was 2.6, the model overestimated by 8.6 points.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 4.5 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
BUF
Road Favorite 2-3 ATS (40%)
CIN
Divisional 1-5 ATS (17%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
51°F
WIND
5 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2023 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2023 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 9
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 1 MEETING
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| CIN@BUFW14 2025 | CIN 34, BUF 39 | BUF | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 9 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSBUF vs CIN
Our model takes Buffalo Bills at 58% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project BUF by 2.6. The market has BUF at +1.5.
Cincinnati Bengals won, BUF 18, CIN 24. Our model had favored Buffalo Bills at 58% win probability, and the pick lost.
The market has Buffalo Bills at +1.5, meaning the book expects Buffalo Bills to win by 1.5 points.
In Week 9, the Buffalo Bills were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful) and the Cincinnati Bengals were without 1 player (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 51.0 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 44.2, 6.8 below the market.
Week 9 of the 2023 season, SUN 8:20 PM.
Buffalo Bills, CIN 34, BUF 39 in Week 14 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2023 season, Buffalo Bills: BUF +0.182 against CIN -0.044.
