Chargers vs Jets – Week 9 2023
LAC
NYJ
LAC
AWAY
27@6
LAC BY 21
FINAL · WEEK 9
2023 SEASON
MetLife Stadium · East Rutherford, NJ
NYJ
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Los Angeles Chargers 27, New York Jets 6.
Going in, our model had favored Los Angeles Chargers at 62% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 1 Chargers, 2 Jets.
Model confidence: LAC 62%Our line: LAC -4.0
ODDS
SPREAD
LAC -3.0
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
LAC -4.0
OUR LINE
COVERED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
LAC · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
62%
TEAM COMPARISON2023 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 9
-0.088Net EPA / play-0.133
-0.076 (24)Offense EPA / play-0.252 (32)
+0.012 (25)Defense EPA / play-0.119 (3)
41.0% (22)Offense success %35.0% (32)
GAME NARRATIVE
LAC B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked LAC. Projected margin: 4.0. Actual: 21. Off by 17.0 points but directionally right.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 18.0 points.
DRAMATIC
The win probability swung past 50% 1 time. A competitive game throughout.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
LAC
Divisional 0-5 ATS (0%)
NYJ
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
48°F
WIND
4 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2023 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2023 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 9
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 1 MEETING
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| NYJ@LACW11 2020 | NYJ 28, LAC 34 | LAC | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 9 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSLAC vs NYJ
Our model takes Los Angeles Chargers at 62% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project LAC by 4.0. The market has LAC at -3.0.
Los Angeles Chargers won, LAC 27, NYJ 6. Our model had favored Los Angeles Chargers at 62% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Los Angeles Chargers at -3.0, meaning the book expects Los Angeles Chargers to win by 3.0 points.
In Week 9, the Los Angeles Chargers were without 1 player (Out or Doubtful) and the New York Jets were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 41.0 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 45.7, 4.7 above the market.
Week 9 of the 2023 season, MON 8:15 PM.
Los Angeles Chargers, NYJ 28, LAC 34 in Week 11 of 2020.
By net EPA per play over the 2023 season, Los Angeles Chargers: LAC -0.088 against NYJ -0.133.
