LAC @ NYJ – Week 9 2023
LAC
NYJ
LAC
AWAY
27@6
LAC BY 21
FINAL · WEEK 9
2023 SEASON
MetLife Stadium · East Rutherford, NJ
NYJ
HOME
Model confidence: LAC 62%Our line: LAC -4.0
LAC
PICK SIDE
-3.0
MARKET SPREAD
-4.0
OUR LINE
-160
OUR ML
—
LIVE ML
COVERED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON2023 SEASON · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 9
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2023 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
-0.088Net EPA / play-0.133
-0.076Offense EPA / play-0.252
+0.012Defense EPA / play-0.119
41.0%Offense success %35.0%
44.1%Defense success %
GAME NARRATIVE
LAC B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked LAC. Projected margin: 4.0. Actual: 21. Off by 17.0 points but directionally right.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 18.0 points.
DRAMATIC
The win probability swung past 50% 1 time. A competitive game throughout.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| SOURCE | LAC | NYJ |
|---|---|---|
| Closing line | -170 | +142 |
| Our fair price | -160 | +160 |
Our fair price carries no vig, so it is what the bet is worth, not what anyone will offer you.
SPREAD LAC -3.0 · nflverse market average, not one book's number
RESULT Won · +$0.65
OUR NUMBER
62%
MARKET, VIG REMOVED
60%
DIFFERENCE
+1%
Both figures are for LAC. The market number strips the margin out first, so the two sides are measured the same way.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
LAC
Divisional 0-5 ATS (0%)
NYJ
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
48°F
WIND
4 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2023 SEASON
LAC
Keenan Allen
WR
278.9 SEASON PPR
Justin Herbert
QB
234.2 SEASON PPR
Austin Ekeler
RB
185.4 SEASON PPR
NYJ
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2023 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Los Angeles ChargersPASSING
Justin Herbert3134 yd · 20 TD · 7 INT
RUSHING
Austin Ekeler628 yd · 5 TD
Joshua Kelley405 yd · 2 TD
Justin Herbert228 yd · 3 TD
RECEIVING
Keenan Allen108 rec · 1243 yd · 7 TD
Josh Palmer38 rec · 581 yd · 2 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 9
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 1 MEETING
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| NYJ@LACW11 2020 | NYJ 28, LAC 34 | LAC | W |
COMMON QUESTIONSLAC vs NYJ
QUESTIONS
Our model takes Los Angeles Chargers at 62% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project LAC by 4.0. The market has LAC at -3.0.
The model projects 45.7 combined points. The market total is 41.0.
Week 9 of the 2023 season, MON 8:15 PM.
Los Angeles Chargers, NYJ 28, LAC 34 in Week 11 of 2020.
By net EPA per play over the 2023 season, Los Angeles Chargers: LAC -0.088 against NYJ -0.133.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 9 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
