Jets vs Chargers – Week 11 2020
NYJ
LAC
NYJ
AWAY
28@34
LAC BY 6
FINAL · WEEK 11
2020 SEASON
SoFi Stadium · Inglewood, CA
LAC
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: New York Jets 28, Los Angeles Chargers 34.
Going in, our model had favored Los Angeles Chargers at 59% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 2 Jets.
Model confidence: LAC 59%Our line: LAC -3.2
ODDS
SPREAD
LAC -10.0
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
LAC -3.2
OUR LINE
MISSED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
LAC · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
59%
TEAM COMPARISON2020 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 11
-0.227Net EPA / play+0.001
-0.143 (32)Offense EPA / play+0.027 (15)
+0.084 (25)Defense EPA / play+0.026 (15)
40.2% (31)Offense success %43.2% (24)
GAME NARRATIVE
LAC B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
NAILED IT
Model projected LAC by 3.2. Actual: 6 points. The model was within 2.8 points of the real margin.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 2 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 4.0 points.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
NYJ
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
LAC
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2020 SEASON
LAC
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2020 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
New York JetsPASSING
Sam Darnold2208 yd · 9 TD · 11 INT
RUSHING
Frank Gore653 yd · 2 TD
Ty Johnson254 yd · 1 TD
La'Mical Perine232 yd · 2 TD
RECEIVING
Jamison Crowder59 rec · 699 yd · 6 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 11
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 1 MEETING
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| LAC@NYJW9 2023 | LAC 27, NYJ 6 | LAC | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 11 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSNYJ vs LAC
Our model takes Los Angeles Chargers at 59% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project LAC by 3.2. The market has LAC at -10.0.
Los Angeles Chargers won, NYJ 28, LAC 34. Our model had favored Los Angeles Chargers at 59% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Los Angeles Chargers at -10.0, meaning the book expects Los Angeles Chargers to win by 10.0 points.
In Week 11, the New York Jets were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 47.0 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 46.6, 0.4 below the market.
Week 11 of the 2020 season, SUN 4:05 PM.
Los Angeles Chargers, LAC 27, NYJ 6 in Week 9 of 2023.
By net EPA per play over the 2020 season, Los Angeles Chargers: NYJ -0.227 against LAC +0.001.
