Titans vs Ravens – Week 11 2020
TEN
BAL
TEN
AWAY
30@24
TEN BY 6
FINAL · WEEK 11
2020 SEASON
M&T Bank Stadium · Baltimore, MD
BAL
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Tennessee Titans 30, Baltimore Ravens 24.
Going in, our model had favored Baltimore Ravens at 61% win probability, and the pick lost.
Out or doubtful: 7 Titans, 2 Ravens.
Model confidence: BAL 61%Our line: BAL -3.9
ODDS
SPREAD
BAL -6.0
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
BAL -3.9
OUR LINE
MISSED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
BAL · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
61%
TEAM COMPARISON2020 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 11
+0.053Net EPA / play+0.180
+0.171 (3)Offense EPA / play+0.120 (5)
+0.117 (28)Defense EPA / play-0.060 (5)
50.1% (3)Offense success %45.8% (16)
GAME NARRATIVE
BAL B-tier pick misses. TEN takes it.
MISSED
Model picked BAL but TEN won. Projected margin was 3.9, the model overestimated by 9.9 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 8 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 12.0 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
TEN
Road Favorite 1-4 ATS (20%)
BAL
Divisional 5-1 ATS (83%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
53°F
WIND
6 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2020 SEASON
BAL
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2020 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Tennessee TitansPASSING
Ryan Tannehill3819 yd · 33 TD · 7 INT
RECEIVING
INJURY REPORTWEEK 11
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| TEN@BALW4 2026 | TEN 18, BAL 24 | BAL | W |
| BAL@TENW6 2023 | BAL 24, TEN 16 | BAL | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 11 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSTEN vs BAL
Our model takes Baltimore Ravens at 61% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project BAL by 3.9. The market has BAL at -6.0.
Tennessee Titans won, TEN 30, BAL 24. Our model had favored Baltimore Ravens at 61% win probability, and the pick lost.
The market has Baltimore Ravens at -6.0, meaning the book expects Baltimore Ravens to win by 6.0 points.
In Week 11, the Tennessee Titans were without 7 players (Out or Doubtful) and the Baltimore Ravens were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 50.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 46.6, 3.9 below the market.
Week 11 of the 2020 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Baltimore Ravens, TEN 18, BAL 24 in Week 4 of 2026.
By net EPA per play over the 2020 season, Baltimore Ravens: TEN +0.053 against BAL +0.180.
