TEN @ BAL – Week 11 2020
TEN
BAL
TEN
AWAY
30@24
TEN BY 6
FINAL · WEEK 11
2020 SEASON
M&T Bank Stadium · Baltimore, MD
BAL
HOME
Model confidence: BAL 61%Our line: BAL -3.9
BAL
PICK SIDE
-6.0
MARKET SPREAD
-3.9
OUR LINE
-159
OUR ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON2020 SEASON · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 11
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2020 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
+0.053Net EPA / play+0.180
+0.171Offense EPA / play+0.120
+0.117Defense EPA / play-0.060
50.1%Offense success %45.8%
47.6%Defense success %
GAME NARRATIVE
BAL B-tier pick misses. TEN takes it.
MISSED
Model picked BAL but TEN won. Projected margin was 3.9, the model overestimated by 9.9 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 8 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 12.0 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
BETTING LINE
| SOURCE | TEN | BAL |
|---|---|---|
| Closing line | +221 | -253 |
| Our fair price | +159 | -159 |
Our fair price carries no vig, so it is what the bet is worth, not what anyone will offer you.
SPREAD BAL -6.0 · nflverse market average, not one book's number
RESULT Lost · -$1.00
OUR NUMBER
61%
MARKET, VIG REMOVED
70%
DIFFERENCE
-8%
Both figures are for BAL. The market number strips the margin out first, so the two sides are measured the same way.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
TEN
Road Favorite 1-4 ATS (20%)
BAL
Divisional 5-1 ATS (83%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
53°F
WIND
6 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2020 SEASON
TEN
Ryan Tannehill
QB
344.4 SEASON PPR
Derrick Henry
RB
333.1 SEASON PPR
A.J. Brown
WR
247.5 SEASON PPR
BAL
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2020 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Tennessee TitansPASSING
Ryan Tannehill3819 yd · 33 TD · 7 INT
RUSHING
Derrick Henry2027 yd · 17 TD
Ryan Tannehill266 yd · 7 TD
Jeremy McNichols204 yd · 1 TD
RECEIVING
A.J. Brown70 rec · 1075 yd · 11 TD
Corey Davis65 rec · 984 yd · 5 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 11
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 1 MEETING
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| BAL@TENW6 2023 | BAL 24, TEN 16 | BAL | W |
COMMON QUESTIONSTEN vs BAL
QUESTIONS
Our model takes Baltimore Ravens at 61% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project BAL by 3.9. The market has BAL at -6.0.
The model projects 46.6 combined points. The market total is 50.5.
Week 11 of the 2020 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Baltimore Ravens, BAL 24, TEN 16 in Week 6 of 2023.
By net EPA per play over the 2020 season, Baltimore Ravens: TEN +0.053 against BAL +0.180.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 11 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
