2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
TEN @ BAL – Week 11 2020
TEN
BAL
TEN
AWAY
30@24
TEN +6
FINAL · WEEK 11
2020 SEASON
BAL
HOME
TIER B
PICK: BAL
PICK LOSTATS ✗
Model confidence: BAL 61%Projected margin: 4.4
BAL
PICK SIDE
-6.0
SPREAD
4.4
PROJ MARGIN
-237
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
BAL B-tier pick misses. TEN takes it.
MISSED
Model picked BAL but TEN won. Projected margin was 4.4 -- the model overestimated by 10.4 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 8 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 12.0 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -6.0 | BAL market line | |
| MODEL ML | -237 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | -253 | Lost · -$1.00 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
TEN
Road Favorite 1-4 ATS (20%)
BAL
Divisional 5-1 ATS (83%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
53°F
WIND
6 MPH
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2020 SEASON
TEN
Ryan Tannehill
QB
344.4SEASON PPR
Derrick Henry
RB
333.1SEASON PPR
A.J. Brown
WR
247.5SEASON PPR
BAL
Lamar Jackson
QB
332.8SEASON PPR
Marquise Brown
WR
183.0SEASON PPR
Mark Andrews
TE
INJURY REPORTWEEK 11
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 1 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| BAL@TENW6 2023 | BAL 24, TEN 16 | BAL | W |
WEEK 11 · OTHER GAMES