Bengals vs Commanders – Week 11 2020
CIN
WAS
CIN
AWAY
9@20
WAS BY 11
FINAL · WEEK 11
2020 SEASON
Northwest Stadium · Landover, MD
WAS
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Cincinnati Bengals 9, Washington Commanders 20.
Going in, our model had favored Cincinnati Bengals at 51% win probability, and the pick lost.
Out or doubtful: 1 Bengals, 4 Commanders.
Model confidence: CIN 51%Our line: CIN -0.2
ODDS
SPREAD
CIN +2.0
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
CIN -0.2
OUR LINE
MISSED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
CIN · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
51%
TEAM COMPARISON2020 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 11
-0.141Net EPA / play+0.023
-0.049 (26)Offense EPA / play-0.067 (29)
+0.092 (26)Defense EPA / play-0.091 (3)
43.6% (23)Offense success %41.2% (29)
GAME NARRATIVE
CIN C-tier pick misses. WAS takes it.
MISSED
Model picked CIN but WAS won. Projected margin was 0.2, the model overestimated by 11.2 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 4 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 9.0 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
CIN
No noteworthy trends
WAS
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)Home Underdog 4-2 ATS (67%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
57°F
WIND
7 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2020 SEASON
WAS
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2020 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 11
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 1 MEETING
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| WAS@CINW3 2024 | WAS 38, CIN 33 | CIN | L |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 11 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSCIN vs WAS
Our model takes Cincinnati Bengals at 51% win probability, a Tier C pick. The margin models project CIN by 0.2. The market has CIN at +2.0.
Washington Commanders won, CIN 9, WAS 20. Our model had favored Cincinnati Bengals at 51% win probability, and the pick lost.
The market has Cincinnati Bengals at +2.0, meaning the book expects Cincinnati Bengals to win by 2.0 points.
In Week 11, the Cincinnati Bengals were without 1 player (Out or Doubtful) and the Washington Commanders were without 4 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 48.0 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 49.0, 1.0 above the market.
Week 11 of the 2020 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Washington Commanders, WAS 38, CIN 33 in Week 3 of 2024.
By net EPA per play over the 2020 season, Washington Commanders: CIN -0.141 against WAS +0.023.
