Bengals vs Commanders – Week 11 2026
CIN
WAS
CIN
AWAY
OUR PICK
@
MON 8:15 PM
WEEK 11 · 2026 SEASON
Northwest Stadium · Landover, MD
WAS
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Our model favors the Bengals over the Commanders at 65% win probability. No betting line has been posted for this game yet.
Model confidence: CIN 65%Our line: CIN -5.1
80% range around our line: WAS by 12 to CIN by 22. Four games in five land inside it.
Betting the CIN game? Pro shows whether we flag it as a bet, at what price, and your stake at your unit size →
ODDS
SPREAD
CIN —
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
CIN -5.1
OUR LINE
MONEYLINE
CIN · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
65%
CIN · MARKET WIN PROBABILITY
53%
DIFFERENCE
+12%
| SPORTSBOOK | CIN | WAS | CIN WIN % |
|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | -125 |
PREGAME SNAPSHOTWEEK 11 · WHAT MATTERS AT KICKOFF
TEAM COMPARISON2026 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES
+0.102Net EPA / play-0.056
+0.072 (10)Offense EPA / play-0.015 (15)
-0.030 (13)Defense EPA / play+0.041 (23)
47.1% (8)Offense success %39.8% (27)
PROJECTED MARGINHOW THE FINAL SCORE COULD LAND
WHY THIS PICK
CIN is our early forecast in CIN @ WAS (Week 11, 2026). The model assigns 65% confidence and projects CIN by 5.1. No betting line has been posted for this game yet, so the model re-runs this forecast every Wednesday as the season plays out.
MODEL AGREEMENT
All three models picked this side. The tier above is a separate read: it reflects how big a margin they project, not how many agreed.
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2026 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2026 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| WAS@CINW3 2024 | WAS 38, CIN 33 | CIN | L |
| CIN@WASW11 2020 | CIN 9, WAS 20 | CIN | L |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 11 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSCIN vs WAS
Our model takes Cincinnati Bengals at 65% win probability. The margin models project CIN by 5.1. No betting line has been posted for this game yet, so this is an early forecast that regenerates every Wednesday.
Our model favors Cincinnati Bengals at 65% win probability.
No betting line has been posted for this game yet.
Week 11 of the 2026 season, MON 8:15 PM.
Washington Commanders, WAS 38, CIN 33 in Week 3 of 2024.
By net EPA per play over the 2026 season, Cincinnati Bengals: CIN +0.102 against WAS -0.056.
