Vikings vs 49ers – Week 11 2026
MIN
SF
MIN
AWAY
@
SUN 8:20 PM
WEEK 11 · 2026 SEASON
Levi's Stadium · Santa Clara, CA
SF
HOME
OUR PICK
THE SHORT ANSWER
Our model favors the 49ers over the Vikings at 68% win probability. No betting line has been posted for this game yet.
Model confidence: SF 68%Our line: SF -6.2
80% range around our line: MIN by 11 to SF by 23. Four games in five land inside it.
Betting the SF game? Pro shows whether we flag it as a bet, at what price, and your stake at your unit size →
ODDS
SPREAD
SF —
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
SF -6.2
OUR LINE
MONEYLINE
SF · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
68%
SF · MARKET WIN PROBABILITY
65%
DIFFERENCE
+3%
| SPORTSBOOK | MIN | SF | SF WIN % |
|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | +160 | -192 |
PREGAME SNAPSHOTWEEK 11 · WHAT MATTERS AT KICKOFF
TEAM COMPARISON2026 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES
+0.111Net EPA / play+0.276
-0.099 (28)Offense EPA / play+0.209 (2)
-0.210 (1)Defense EPA / play-0.067 (4)
35.9% (32)Offense success %52.7% (1)
PROJECTED MARGINHOW THE FINAL SCORE COULD LAND
GAME NARRATIVE
Early forecast: SF at 68%, backed by epa edge.
EPA EDGE
SF generates 0.209 EPA/play on offense. MIN's defense allows -0.210. That's a top-tier efficiency gap.
RED ZONE
SF converts 100% in the red zone vs 55% for MIN. That efficiency gap matters in close games.
DRIVE EFF
SF scores 2.8 points per drive vs 1.0 for MIN. That's a substantial offensive rhythm gap.
Multiple signals align in SF's favor. One of the cleaner setups on the slate.
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2026 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2026 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Minnesota VikingsPASSING
K.Murray662 yd · 2 TD · 2 INT
RECEIVING
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 3 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| SF@MINW2 2024 | SF 17, MIN 23 | SF | L |
| SF@MINW7 2023 | SF 17, MIN 22 | SF | L |
| MIN@SFW12 2021 | MIN 26, SF 34 | MIN | L |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 11 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSMIN vs SF
Our model takes San Francisco 49ers at 68% win probability. The margin models project SF by 6.2. No betting line has been posted for this game yet, so this is an early forecast that regenerates every Wednesday.
Our model favors San Francisco 49ers at 68% win probability.
No betting line has been posted for this game yet.
Week 11 of the 2026 season, SUN 8:20 PM.
Minnesota Vikings, SF 17, MIN 23 in Week 2 of 2024.
By net EPA per play over the 2026 season, San Francisco 49ers: MIN +0.111 against SF +0.276.
