MIN @ SF – Week 11 2026
MIN
SF
MIN
AWAY
@
SUN 8:20 PM
WEEK 11 · 2026 SEASON
SF
HOME
OUR PICK
Model confidence: SF 67%Projected margin: -4.1
SF
PICK SIDE
-4.5
SPREAD
-4.1
PROJ MARGIN
-191
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
TEAM COMPARISON2025 SEASON
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2025 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
-0.016Net EPA / play+0.018
-0.116Offense EPA / play+0.088
-0.100Defense EPA / play+0.070
42.6%Offense success %48.3%
41.0%Defense success %
PROJECTED MARGINEVERY OUTCOME THE MODEL CONSIDERS LIKELY
GAME NARRATIVE
Model favors SF (B-tier, 67% confidence).
HIGH CONVICTION
SF is one of the model's highest-conviction calls. Its strongest calls hit at a significantly higher rate.
DRIVE EFF
SF scores 2.0 points per drive vs 1.3 for MIN. That's a substantial offensive rhythm gap.
Net-positive signal profile for SF. Grade: B.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -4.5 | SF market line | |
| MODEL ML | -191 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML |
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2025 SEASON
MIN
J.Jefferson
WR
201.5SEASON PPR
J.Addison
WR
135.1SEASON PPR
J.Mason
RB
128.9SEASON PPR
SF
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2025 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Minnesota VikingsPASSING
J.McCarthy1632 yd · 11 TD · 12 INT
RUSHING
J.Mason758 yd · 6 TD
A.Jones548 yd · 2 TD
J.McCarthy181 yd · 4 TD
RECEIVING
J.Jefferson84 rec · 1048 yd · 2 TD
J.Addison42 rec · 610 yd · 3 TD
J.Nailor29 rec · 444 yd · 4 TD
T.Hockenson51 rec · 438 yd · 3 TD
VS
1,632PASSyds2,167
1,487RUSHyds
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 3 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| SF@MINW2 2024 | SF 17, MIN 23 | SF | L |
| SF@MINW7 2023 | SF 17, MIN 22 | SF | L |
| MIN@SFW12 2021 | MIN 26, SF 34 | MIN | L |
COMMON QUESTIONSMIN vs SF
Who is favored in Minnesota Vikings at San Francisco 49ers?
Our model takes San Francisco 49ers at 67% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project SF by 4.1. The market has SF at -4.5.
When do the Minnesota Vikings and San Francisco 49ers play?
Week 11 of the 2026 season, SUN 8:20 PM.
Who won the last Minnesota Vikings vs San Francisco 49ers game?
Minnesota Vikings, 17-23 in Week 2 of 2024.
Which team has been better, the Minnesota Vikings or the San Francisco 49ers?
By net EPA per play over the 2025 season, San Francisco 49ers: MIN -0.016 against SF +0.018.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake — plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
