Vikings vs 49ers – Week 12 2021
MIN
SF
MIN
AWAY
26@34
SF BY 8
FINAL · WEEK 12
2021 SEASON
Levi's Stadium · Santa Clara, CA
SF
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Minnesota Vikings 26, San Francisco 49ers 34.
Going in, our model had favored Minnesota Vikings at 51% win probability, and the pick lost.
Out or doubtful: 1 Vikings, 2 49ers.
Model confidence: MIN 51%Our line: MIN -0.2
ODDS
SPREAD
MIN +3.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
MIN -0.2
OUR LINE
MISSED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
MIN · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
51%
TEAM COMPARISON2021 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 12
+0.035Net EPA / play+0.120
+0.017 (16)Offense EPA / play+0.087 (7)
-0.018 (12)Defense EPA / play-0.034 (8)
41.4% (24)Offense success %45.7% (12)
GAME NARRATIVE
MIN C-tier pick misses. SF takes it.
MISSED
Model picked MIN but SF won. Projected margin was 0.2, the model overestimated by 8.2 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 4 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 4.5 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
MIN
No noteworthy trends
SF
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
68°F
WIND
7 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2021 SEASON
SF
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2021 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 12
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| SF@MINW2 2024 | SF 17, MIN 23 | SF | L |
| SF@MINW7 2023 | SF 17, MIN 22 | SF | L |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 12 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSMIN vs SF
Our model takes Minnesota Vikings at 51% win probability, a Tier C pick. The margin models project MIN by 0.2. The market has MIN at +3.5.
San Francisco 49ers won, MIN 26, SF 34. Our model had favored Minnesota Vikings at 51% win probability, and the pick lost.
The market has Minnesota Vikings at +3.5, meaning the book expects Minnesota Vikings to win by 3.5 points.
In Week 12, the Minnesota Vikings were without 1 player (Out or Doubtful) and the San Francisco 49ers were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 49.0 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 49.0, 0.0 above the market.
Week 12 of the 2021 season, SUN 4:25 PM.
Minnesota Vikings, SF 17, MIN 23 in Week 2 of 2024.
By net EPA per play over the 2021 season, San Francisco 49ers: MIN +0.035 against SF +0.120.
