2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
PHI @ NYG – Week 12 2021
PHI
NYG
PHI
AWAY
7@13
NYG +6
FINAL · WEEK 12
2021 SEASON
NYG
HOME
TIER B
PICK: PHI
PICK LOSTATS ✗
Model confidence: PHI 59%Projected margin: -4.1
PHI
PICK SIDE
-4.0
SPREAD
-4.1
PROJ MARGIN
-178
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
PHI B-tier pick misses. NYG takes it.
MISSED
Model picked PHI but NYG won. Projected margin was 4.1 -- the model overestimated by 10.1 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 6 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 10.0 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -4.0 | PHI market line | |
| MODEL ML | -178 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | -192 | Lost · -$1.00 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
PHI
Divisional 1-4 ATS (20%)Home Underdog 1-4 ATS (20%)
NYG
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
39°F
WIND
4 MPH
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2021 SEASON
PHI
Jalen Hurts
QB
312.2SEASON PPR
DeVonta Smith
WR
185.6SEASON PPR
Dallas Goedert
TE
165.0SEASON PPR
NYG
Daniel Jones
QB
167.5SEASON PPR
Saquon Barkley
RB
148.6SEASON PPR
Devontae Booker
RB
INJURY REPORTWEEK 12
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| NYG@PHIW8 2025 | NYG 20, PHI 38 | PHI | W |
| PHI@NYGW6 2025 | PHI 17, NYG 34 | PHI | L |
| NYG@PHIW18 2024 | NYG 13, PHI 20 | PHI | W |
| PHI@NYGW7 2024 | PHI 28, NYG 3 | PHI | W |
| PHI@NYGW18 2023 | PHI 10, NYG 27 | PHI | L |
WEEK 12 · OTHER GAMES