Seahawks vs Commanders – Week 12 2021
SEA
WAS
SEA
AWAY
15@17
WAS BY 2
FINAL · WEEK 12
2021 SEASON
Northwest Stadium · Landover, MD
WAS
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Seattle Seahawks 15, Washington Commanders 17.
Going in, our model had favored Washington Commanders at 53% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 5 Seahawks, 3 Commanders.
Model confidence: WAS 53%Our line: WAS -0.9
ODDS
SPREAD
WAS +1.0
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
WAS -0.9
OUR LINE
COVERED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
WAS · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
53%
TEAM COMPARISON2021 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 12
+0.003Net EPA / play-0.124
+0.031 (14)Offense EPA / play-0.057 (21)
+0.028 (22)Defense EPA / play+0.067 (26)
43.2% (21)Offense success %43.9% (20)
GAME NARRATIVE
WAS C-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
NAILED IT
Model projected WAS by 0.9. Actual: 2 points. The model was within 1.1 points of the real margin.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 2 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 3.0 points.
Another data point for the model. C-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
SEA
No noteworthy trends
WAS
Divisional 2-3 ATS (40%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
41°F
WIND
9 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2021 SEASON
WAS
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2021 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Seattle SeahawksPASSING
Russell Wilson3113 yd · 25 TD · 6 INT
RUSHING
Rashaad Penny749 yd · 6 TD
Alex Collins411 yd · 2 TD
Chris Carson232 yd · 3 TD
RECEIVING
Tyler Lockett73 rec · 1175 yd · 8 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 12
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 4 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| SEA@WASW3 2026 | SEA 31, WAS 33 | SEA | L |
| SEA@WASW9 2025 | SEA 38, WAS 14 | SEA | W |
| WAS@SEAW10 2023 | WAS 26, SEA 29 | SEA | W |
| SEA@WASW15 2020 | SEA 20, WAS 15 | SEA | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 12 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSSEA vs WAS
Our model takes Washington Commanders at 53% win probability, a Tier C pick. The margin models project WAS by 0.9. The market has WAS at +1.0.
Washington Commanders won, SEA 15, WAS 17. Our model had favored Washington Commanders at 53% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Washington Commanders at +1.0, meaning the book expects Washington Commanders to win by 1.0 points.
In Week 12, the Seattle Seahawks were without 5 players (Out or Doubtful) and the Washington Commanders were without 3 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 47.0 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 48.2, 1.2 above the market.
Week 12 of the 2021 season, MON 8:15 PM.
Washington Commanders, SEA 31, WAS 33 in Week 3 of 2026.
By net EPA per play over the 2021 season, Seattle Seahawks: SEA +0.003 against WAS -0.124.
