Seahawks vs Commanders – Week 3 2026
SEA
WAS
SEA
AWAY
31@33
WAS BY 2
FINAL · WEEK 3
2026 SEASON
Northwest Stadium · Landover, MD
WAS
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Seattle Seahawks 31, Washington Commanders 33.
Going in, our model had favored Seattle Seahawks at 76% win probability, and the pick lost.
Out or doubtful: 2 Seahawks, 5 Commanders.
Model confidence: SEA 76%Our line: SEA -9.7
ODDS
TEAM COMPARISON2026 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 3
+0.060Net EPA / play-0.056
-0.073 (25)Offense EPA / play-0.015 (15)
-0.133 (2)Defense EPA / play+0.041 (23)
41.5% (22)Offense success %39.8% (27)
GAME NARRATIVE
SEA A+-tier pick misses. WAS takes it.
MISSED
Model picked SEA but WAS won. Projected margin was 9.7, the model overestimated by 11.7 points.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 9.5 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
63°F
WIND
13 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
CLOSING LINE VALUE
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2026 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2026 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 3
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 4 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| SEA@WASW9 2025 | SEA 38, WAS 14 | SEA | W |
| WAS@SEAW10 2023 | WAS 26, SEA 29 | SEA | W |
| SEA@WASW12 2021 | SEA 15, WAS 17 | WAS | W |
| SEA@WASW15 2020 | SEA 20, WAS 15 | SEA | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 3 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSSEA vs WAS
Our model takes Seattle Seahawks at 76% win probability, a Tier A+ pick. The margin models project SEA by 9.7. The market has SEA at -7.5.
Washington Commanders won, SEA 31, WAS 33. Our model had favored Seattle Seahawks at 76% win probability, and the pick lost.
The market has Seattle Seahawks at -7.5, meaning the book expects Seattle Seahawks to win by 7.5 points.
In Week 3, the Seattle Seahawks were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful) and the Washington Commanders were without 5 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 39.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 43.1, 3.6 above the market, which our board calls an over.
Week 3 of the 2026 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Seattle Seahawks, SEA 38, WAS 14 in Week 9 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2026 season, Seattle Seahawks: SEA +0.060 against WAS -0.056.
