SEA @ WAS – Week 3 2026
SEA
WAS
SEA
AWAY
OUR PICK
@
SUN 1:00 PM
WEEK 3 · 2026 SEASON
WAS
HOME
Model confidence: SEA 75%Projected margin: -7.0
SEA
PICK SIDE
-3.5
SPREAD
-7.0
PROJ MARGIN
-165
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
TEAM COMPARISON2025 SEASON
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2025 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
+0.150Net EPA / play-0.137
+0.033Offense EPA / play+0.005
-0.117Defense EPA / play+0.142
46.3%Offense success %45.6%
39.6%Defense success %
PROJECTED MARGINEVERY OUTCOME THE MODEL CONSIDERS LIKELY
GAME NARRATIVE
SEA backed by epa edge at 75%.
EPA EDGE
SEA generates 0.033 EPA/play on offense. WAS's defense allows 0.142. That's a top-tier efficiency gap.
HIGH CONVICTION
SEA is one of the model's highest-conviction calls. Its strongest calls hit at a significantly higher rate.
H2H EDGE
SEA has won 3 of the last 4 meetings against WAS.
BLOWOUT PROJ
Model projects a 7.0-point margin. Games projected by 7+ points have a strong cover rate historically.
Multiple signals align in SEA's favor. One of the cleaner setups on the slate.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -3.5 | SEA market line | |
| MODEL ML | -165 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML |
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2025 SEASON
SEA
J.Smith-Njigba
WR
359.9SEASON PPR
S.Darnold
QB
235.4SEASON PPR
K.Walker
RB
191.9SEASON PPR
WAS
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2025 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Seattle SeahawksPASSING
S.Darnold4048 yd · 25 TD · 14 INT
RUSHING
K.Walker1027 yd · 5 TD
Z.Charbonnet730 yd · 12 TD
S.Darnold95 yd · 0 TD
RECEIVING
J.Smith-Njigba119 rec · 1793 yd · 10 TD
C.Kupp47 rec · 593 yd · 2 TD
A.Barner52 rec · 519 yd · 6 TD
K.Walker31 rec · 282 yd · 0 TD
VS
4,048PASSyds1,695
1,852RUSH
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 4 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| SEA@WASW9 2025 | SEA 38, WAS 14 | SEA | W |
| WAS@SEAW10 2023 | WAS 26, SEA 29 | SEA | W |
| SEA@WASW12 2021 | SEA 15, WAS 17 | WAS | W |
| SEA@WASW15 2020 | SEA 20, WAS 15 | SEA | W |
COMMON QUESTIONSSEA vs WAS
Who is favored in Seattle Seahawks at Washington Commanders?
Our model takes Seattle Seahawks at 75% win probability, a Tier A pick. The margin models project SEA by 7.0. The market has SEA at -3.5.
When do the Seattle Seahawks and Washington Commanders play?
Week 3 of the 2026 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Who won the last Seattle Seahawks vs Washington Commanders game?
Seattle Seahawks, 38-14 in Week 9 of 2025.
Which team has been better, the Seattle Seahawks or the Washington Commanders?
By net EPA per play over the 2025 season, Seattle Seahawks: SEA +0.150 against WAS -0.137.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake — plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
