LA @ DEN – Week 3 2026
LA
DEN
LA
AWAY
@
SUN 8:20 PM
WEEK 3 · 2026 SEASON
DEN
HOME
OUR PICK
Model confidence: DEN 63%Projected margin: -3.0
DEN
PICK SIDE
+3.0
SPREAD
-3.0
PROJ MARGIN
+154
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
TEAM COMPARISON2025 SEASON
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2025 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
+0.206Net EPA / play+0.138
+0.145Offense EPA / play+0.050
-0.061Defense EPA / play-0.088
51.8%Offense success %44.2%
42.0%Defense success %
PROJECTED MARGINEVERY OUTCOME THE MODEL CONSIDERS LIKELY
WHY THIS PICK
DEN is our C-tier play in LA @ DEN (Week 3, 2026). The model assigns 63.4% confidence and projects DEN by 3.0. Market spread sits at DEN +3.0.
MODEL CONVICTION
Split. The model leans this way with less conviction.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | +3.0 | DEN market line | |
| MODEL ML | +154 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML |
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2025 SEASON
LA
P.Nacua
WR
375.0SEASON PPR
M.Stafford
QB
350.4SEASON PPR
K.Williams
RB
263.3SEASON PPR
DEN
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2025 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Los Angeles RamsPASSING
M.Stafford4707 yd · 46 TD · 8 INT
RUSHING
K.Williams1252 yd · 10 TD
B.Corum746 yd · 6 TD
P.Nacua105 yd · 1 TD
RECEIVING
P.Nacua129 rec · 1715 yd · 10 TD
D.Adams60 rec · 789 yd · 14 TD
C.Parkinson43 rec · 408 yd · 8 TD
X.Smith18 rec · 303 yd · 0 TD
VS
4,707PASSyds3,931
2,103RUSHyds
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 1 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| DEN@LAW16 2022 | DEN 14, LA 51 | LA | W |
COMMON QUESTIONSLA vs DEN
Who is favored in Los Angeles Rams at Denver Broncos?
Our model takes Denver Broncos at 63% win probability, a Tier C pick. The margin models project DEN by 3.0. The market has DEN at +3.0.
When do the Los Angeles Rams and Denver Broncos play?
Week 3 of the 2026 season, SUN 8:20 PM.
Who won the last Los Angeles Rams vs Denver Broncos game?
Los Angeles Rams, 14-51 in Week 16 of 2022.
Which team has been better, the Los Angeles Rams or the Denver Broncos?
By net EPA per play over the 2025 season, Los Angeles Rams: LA +0.206 against DEN +0.138.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake — plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
