Rams vs Broncos – Week 3 2026
LA
DEN
LA
AWAY
26@30
DEN BY 4
FINAL · WEEK 3
2026 SEASON
Empower Field at Mile High · Denver, CO
DEN
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Los Angeles Rams 26, Denver Broncos 30.
Going in, our model had favored Denver Broncos at 60% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 2 Rams, 1 Broncos.
Model confidence: DEN 60%Our line: DEN -3.6
ODDS
SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON2026 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 3
+0.114Net EPA / play-0.041
+0.073 (9)Offense EPA / play-0.066 (24)
-0.042 (10)Defense EPA / play-0.025 (14)
47.3% (7)Offense success %39.9% (26)
GAME NARRATIVE
DEN C-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
NAILED IT
Model projected DEN by 3.6. Actual: 4 points. The model was within 0.4 points of the real margin.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 10 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 5.5 points.
Another data point for the model. C-tier picks continue to track.
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
83°F
WIND
10 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
CLOSING LINE VALUE
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2026 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2026 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 3
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 1 MEETING
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| DEN@LAW16 2022 | DEN 14, LA 51 | LA | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 3 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSLA vs DEN
Our model takes Denver Broncos at 60% win probability, a Tier C pick. The margin models project DEN by 3.6. The market has DEN at +1.5.
Denver Broncos won, LA 26, DEN 30. Our model had favored Denver Broncos at 60% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Denver Broncos at +1.5, meaning the book expects Denver Broncos to win by 1.5 points.
In Week 3, the Los Angeles Rams were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful) and the Denver Broncos were without 1 player (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 44.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 46.6, 2.1 above the market, which our board calls an over.
Week 3 of the 2026 season, SUN 8:20 PM.
Los Angeles Rams, DEN 14, LA 51 in Week 16 of 2022.
By net EPA per play over the 2026 season, Los Angeles Rams: LA +0.114 against DEN -0.041.
