CAR @ CLE – Week 3 2026
CAR
CLE
CAR
AWAY
OUR PICK
@
SUN 1:00 PM
WEEK 3 · 2026 SEASON
CLE
HOME
Model confidence: CAR 62%Projected margin: -0.6
CAR
PICK SIDE
-1.5
SPREAD
-0.6
PROJ MARGIN
-124
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
TEAM COMPARISON2025 SEASON
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2025 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
-0.107Net EPA / play-0.094
-0.039Offense EPA / play-0.190
+0.067Defense EPA / play-0.096
43.1%Offense success %34.5%
44.3%Defense success %
PROJECTED MARGINEVERY OUTCOME THE MODEL CONSIDERS LIKELY
GAME NARRATIVE
Model favors CAR (C-tier, 62% confidence).
AGGRESSIVE 4TH
CAR goes for it on 4th down 32% of the time -- among the most aggressive in the NFL.
DRIVE EFF
CAR scores 1.5 points per drive vs 1.0 for CLE. That's a substantial offensive rhythm gap.
Net-positive signal profile for CAR. Grade: C.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -1.5 | CAR market line | |
| MODEL ML | -124 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML |
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2025 SEASON
CAR
B.Young
QB
218.0SEASON PPR
R.Dowdle
RB
216.3SEASON PPR
T.McMillan
WR
213.4SEASON PPR
CLE
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2025 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Carolina PanthersPASSING
B.Young3011 yd · 23 TD · 11 INT
RUSHING
R.Dowdle1076 yd · 6 TD
C.Hubbard511 yd · 1 TD
B.Young216 yd · 2 TD
RECEIVING
T.McMillan70 rec · 1014 yd · 7 TD
J.Coker33 rec · 394 yd · 3 TD
X.Legette35 rec · 363 yd · 3 TD
R.Dowdle39 rec · 297 yd · 1 TD
VS
3,011PASSyds1,400
1,803RUSHyds
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 1 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| CLE@CARW1 2022 | CLE 26, CAR 24 | CLE | W |
COMMON QUESTIONSCAR vs CLE
Who is favored in Carolina Panthers at Cleveland Browns?
Our model takes Carolina Panthers at 62% win probability, a Tier C pick. The margin models project CAR by 0.6. The market has CAR at -1.5.
When do the Carolina Panthers and Cleveland Browns play?
Week 3 of the 2026 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Who won the last Carolina Panthers vs Cleveland Browns game?
Cleveland Browns, 26-24 in Week 1 of 2022.
Which team has been better, the Carolina Panthers or the Cleveland Browns?
By net EPA per play over the 2025 season, Cleveland Browns: CAR -0.107 against CLE -0.094.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake — plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
