CLE @ CAR – Week 1 2022
CLE
CAR
CLE
AWAY
26@24
CLE BY 2
FINAL · WEEK 1
2022 SEASON
Bank of America Stadium · Charlotte, NC
CAR
HOME
Model confidence: CLE 67%Our line: CLE -6.0
CLE
PICK SIDE
+2.5
MARKET SPREAD
-6.0
OUR LINE
-203
OUR ML
—
LIVE ML
COVERED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON2022 SEASON · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 1
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2022 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
-0.001Net EPA / play-0.037
+0.012Offense EPA / play-0.035
+0.014Defense EPA / play+0.003
44.0%Offense success %40.7%
43.6%Defense success %
GAME NARRATIVE
CLE B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked CLE. Projected margin: 6.0. Actual: 2. Off by 4.0 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 11 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 4.5 points.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| SOURCE | CLE | CAR |
|---|---|---|
| Closing line | +114 | -125 |
| Our fair price | -203 | +203 |
Our fair price carries no vig, so it is what the bet is worth, not what anyone will offer you.
SPREAD CLE +2.5 · nflverse market average, not one book's number
RESULT Won · +$1.43
OUR NUMBER
67%
MARKET, VIG REMOVED
46%
DIFFERENCE
+21%
Both figures are for CLE. The market number strips the margin out first, so the two sides are measured the same way.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
CLE
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
CAR
Divisional 5-1 ATS (83%)Home Underdog 5-1 ATS (83%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2022 SEASON
CLE
Nick Chubb
RB
281.4 SEASON PPR
Amari Cooper
WR
246.0 SEASON PPR
Jacoby Brissett
QB
168.6 SEASON PPR
CAR
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2022 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Cleveland BrownsPASSING
Jacoby Brissett2608 yd · 12 TD · 6 INT
RUSHING
Nick Chubb1525 yd · 12 TD
Kareem Hunt468 yd · 3 TD
Jacoby Brissett243 yd · 2 TD
RECEIVING
Amari Cooper78 rec · 1160 yd · 9 TD
Donovan Peoples-Jones61 rec · 839 yd · 3 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 1
COMMON QUESTIONSCLE vs CAR
QUESTIONS
Our model takes Cleveland Browns at 67% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project CLE by 6.0. The market has CLE at +2.5.
Week 1 of the 2022 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
By net EPA per play over the 2022 season, Cleveland Browns: CLE -0.001 against CAR -0.037.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 1 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
