Browns vs Panthers – Week 1 2022
CLE
CAR
CLE
AWAY
26@24
CLE BY 2
FINAL · WEEK 1
2022 SEASON
Bank of America Stadium · Charlotte, NC
CAR
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Cleveland Browns 26, Carolina Panthers 24.
Going in, our model had favored Cleveland Browns at 67% win probability, and the pick won.
Model confidence: CLE 67%Our line: CLE -6.0
ODDS
SPREAD
CLE +2.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
CLE -6.0
OUR LINE
COVERED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
CLE · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
67%
CLE · MARKET WIN PROBABILITY
46%
DIFFERENCE
+21%
| SOURCE | CLE | CAR | CLE WIN % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Closing line | +114 | -125 | 45.6% |
TEAM COMPARISON2022 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 1
-0.001Net EPA / play-0.037
+0.012 (10)Offense EPA / play-0.035 (20)
+0.014 (22)Defense EPA / play+0.003 (16)
44.0% (19)Offense success %40.7% (25)
GAME NARRATIVE
CLE B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked CLE. Projected margin: 6.0. Actual: 2. Off by 4.0 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 11 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 4.5 points.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
CLE
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
CAR
Divisional 5-1 ATS (83%)Home Underdog 5-1 ATS (83%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2022 SEASON
CAR
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2022 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 1
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 1 MEETING
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| CAR@CLEW3 2026 | CAR 18, CLE 21 | CAR | L |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 1 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSCLE vs CAR
Our model takes Cleveland Browns at 67% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project CLE by 6.0. The market has CLE at +2.5.
Cleveland Browns won, CLE 26, CAR 24. Our model had favored Cleveland Browns at 67% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Cleveland Browns at +2.5, meaning the book expects Cleveland Browns to win by 2.5 points.
Week 1 of the 2022 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Cleveland Browns, CAR 18, CLE 21 in Week 3 of 2026.
By net EPA per play over the 2022 season, Cleveland Browns: CLE -0.001 against CAR -0.037.
