NYG @ TEN – Week 1 2022
NYG
TEN
NYG
AWAY
21@20
NYG BY 1
FINAL · WEEK 1
2022 SEASON
Nissan Stadium · Nashville, TN
TEN
HOME
Model confidence: TEN 75%Our line: TEN -9.1
TEN
PICK SIDE
-5.5
MARKET SPREAD
-9.1
OUR LINE
-301
OUR ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON2022 SEASON · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 1
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2022 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
-0.016Net EPA / play-0.064
+0.030Offense EPA / play-0.059
+0.046Defense EPA / play+0.004
44.9%Offense success %41.1%
43.7%Defense success %
GAME NARRATIVE
TEN S-tier pick misses. NYG takes it.
MISSED
Model picked TEN but NYG won. Projected margin was 9.1, the model overestimated by 10.1 points.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 6.5 points.
DRAMATIC
The win probability swung past 50% 1 time. A competitive game throughout.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
BETTING LINE
| SOURCE | NYG | TEN |
|---|---|---|
| Closing line | +209 | -239 |
| Our fair price | +301 | -301 |
Our fair price carries no vig, so it is what the bet is worth, not what anyone will offer you.
SPREAD TEN -5.5 · nflverse market average, not one book's number
RESULT Lost · -$1.00
OUR NUMBER
75%
MARKET, VIG REMOVED
69%
DIFFERENCE
+7%
Both figures are for TEN. The market number strips the margin out first, so the two sides are measured the same way.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
NYG
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
TEN
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2022 SEASON
NYG
Daniel Jones
QB
289.0 SEASON PPR
Saquon Barkley
RB
284.0 SEASON PPR
Richie James
WR
138.5 SEASON PPR
TEN
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2022 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
New York GiantsPASSING
Daniel Jones3205 yd · 15 TD · 5 INT
RUSHING
Saquon Barkley1312 yd · 10 TD
Daniel Jones708 yd · 7 TD
Matt Breida220 yd · 1 TD
RECEIVING
Darius Slayton46 rec · 724 yd · 2 TD
Richie James57 rec · 569 yd · 4 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 1
COMMON QUESTIONSNYG vs TEN
QUESTIONS
Our model takes Tennessee Titans at 75% win probability, a Tier S pick. The margin models project TEN by 9.1. The market has TEN at -5.5.
Week 1 of the 2022 season, SUN 4:25 PM.
By net EPA per play over the 2022 season, New York Giants: NYG -0.016 against TEN -0.064.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 1 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
