Giants vs Titans – Week 1 2022
NYG
TEN
NYG
AWAY
21@20
NYG BY 1
FINAL · WEEK 1
2022 SEASON
Nissan Stadium · Nashville, TN
TEN
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: New York Giants 21, Tennessee Titans 20.
Going in, our model had favored Tennessee Titans at 75% win probability, and the pick lost.
Out or doubtful: 2 Giants, 4 Titans.
Model confidence: TEN 75%Our line: TEN -9.1
ODDS
SPREAD
TEN -5.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
TEN -9.1
OUR LINE
MISSED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
TEN · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
75%
TEN · MARKET WIN PROBABILITY
69%
DIFFERENCE
+6%
| SOURCE | NYG | TEN | TEN WIN % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Closing line | +209 |
TEAM COMPARISON2022 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 1
-0.016Net EPA / play-0.064
+0.030 (9)Offense EPA / play-0.059 (25)
+0.046 (28)Defense EPA / play+0.004 (18)
44.9% (14)Offense success %41.1% (22)
GAME NARRATIVE
TEN S-tier pick misses. NYG takes it.
MISSED
Model picked TEN but NYG won. Projected margin was 9.1, the model overestimated by 10.1 points.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 6.5 points.
DRAMATIC
The win probability swung past 50% 1 time. A competitive game throughout.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
NYG
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
TEN
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2022 SEASON
TEN
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2022 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 1
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 1 MEETING
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| TEN@NYGW3 2026 | TEN 7, NYG 12 | NYG | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 1 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSNYG vs TEN
Our model takes Tennessee Titans at 75% win probability, a Tier S pick. The margin models project TEN by 9.1. The market has TEN at -5.5.
New York Giants won, NYG 21, TEN 20. Our model had favored Tennessee Titans at 75% win probability, and the pick lost.
The market has Tennessee Titans at -5.5, meaning the book expects Tennessee Titans to win by 5.5 points.
In Week 1, the New York Giants were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful) and the Tennessee Titans were without 4 players (Out or Doubtful).
Week 1 of the 2022 season, SUN 4:25 PM.
New York Giants, TEN 7, NYG 12 in Week 3 of 2026.
By net EPA per play over the 2022 season, New York Giants: NYG -0.016 against TEN -0.064.
