Jaguars vs Commanders – Week 1 2022
JAX
WAS
JAX
AWAY
22@28
WAS BY 6
FINAL · WEEK 1
2022 SEASON
Northwest Stadium · Landover, MD
WAS
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Jacksonville Jaguars 22, Washington Commanders 28.
Going in, our model had favored Washington Commanders at 65% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 1 Commanders.
Model confidence: WAS 65%Our line: WAS -5.1
ODDS
SPREAD
WAS -3.0
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
WAS -5.1
OUR LINE
COVERED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
WAS · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
65%
WAS · MARKET WIN PROBABILITY
60%
DIFFERENCE
+5%
| SOURCE | JAX | WAS | WAS WIN % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Closing line | +143 | -159 | 60.1% |
WIN % is each book’s odds as a win chance, with the book’s cut taken out. The card above is their average.
TEAM COMPARISON2022 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 1
+0.067Net EPA / play-0.003
+0.046 (8)Offense EPA / play-0.078 (26)
-0.021 (13)Defense EPA / play-0.075 (4)
46.3% (5)Offense success %40.4% (28)
GAME NARRATIVE
WAS B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
NAILED IT
Model projected WAS by 5.1. Actual: 6 points. The model was within 0.9 points of the real margin.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 4 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 3.0 points.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
JAX
No noteworthy trends
WAS
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2022 SEASON
JAX
295.6 SEASON PPR
Christian Kirk
WR
241.9 SEASON PPR
205.1 SEASON PPR
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2022 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 1
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 1 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSJAX vs WAS
Our model takes Washington Commanders at 65% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project WAS by 5.1. The market has WAS at -3.0.
Washington Commanders won, JAX 22, WAS 28. Our model had favored Washington Commanders at 65% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Washington Commanders at -3.0, meaning the book expects Washington Commanders to win by 3.0 points.
In Week 1, the Washington Commanders were without 1 player (Out or Doubtful).
Week 1 of the 2022 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
By net EPA per play over the 2022 season, Jacksonville Jaguars: JAX +0.067 against WAS -0.003.
