JAX @ WAS – Week 1 2022
JAX
WAS
JAX
AWAY
22@28
WAS BY 6
FINAL · WEEK 1
2022 SEASON
Northwest Stadium · Landover, MD
WAS
HOME
Model confidence: WAS 65%Our line: WAS -5.1
WAS
PICK SIDE
-3.0
MARKET SPREAD
-5.1
OUR LINE
-183
OUR ML
—
LIVE ML
COVERED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON2022 SEASON · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 1
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2022 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
+0.067Net EPA / play-0.003
+0.046Offense EPA / play-0.078
-0.021Defense EPA / play-0.075
46.3%Offense success %40.4%
44.0%Defense success %
GAME NARRATIVE
WAS B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
NAILED IT
Model projected WAS by 5.1. Actual: 6 points. The model was within 0.9 points of the real margin.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 4 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 3.0 points.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| SOURCE | JAX | WAS |
|---|---|---|
| Closing line | +143 | -159 |
| Our fair price | +183 | -183 |
Our fair price carries no vig, so it is what the bet is worth, not what anyone will offer you.
SPREAD WAS -3.0 · nflverse market average, not one book's number
RESULT Won · +$0.65
OUR NUMBER
65%
MARKET, VIG REMOVED
60%
DIFFERENCE
+5%
Both figures are for WAS. The market number strips the margin out first, so the two sides are measured the same way.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
JAX
No noteworthy trends
WAS
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2022 SEASON
JAX
Trevor Lawrence
QB
295.6 SEASON PPR
Christian Kirk
WR
241.9 SEASON PPR
Travis Etienne
RB
205.1 SEASON PPR
WAS
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2022 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Jacksonville JaguarsPASSING
Trevor Lawrence4113 yd · 25 TD · 8 INT
RUSHING
Travis Etienne1125 yd · 5 TD
James Robinson340 yd · 3 TD
Trevor Lawrence291 yd · 5 TD
RECEIVING
Christian Kirk84 rec · 1108 yd · 8 TD
Zay Jones82 rec · 823 yd · 5 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 1
COMMON QUESTIONSJAX vs WAS
QUESTIONS
Our model takes Washington Commanders at 65% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project WAS by 5.1. The market has WAS at -3.0.
Week 1 of the 2022 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
By net EPA per play over the 2022 season, Jacksonville Jaguars: JAX +0.067 against WAS -0.003.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the EdgeWEEK 1 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
