Bills vs Rams – Week 1 2022
BUF
LA
BUF
AWAY
31@10
BUF BY 21
FINAL · WEEK 1
2022 SEASON
SoFi Stadium · Inglewood, CA
LA
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Buffalo Bills 31, Los Angeles Rams 10.
Going in, our model had favored Buffalo Bills at 62% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 1 Rams.
Model confidence: BUF 62%Our line: BUF -4.1
ODDS
SPREAD
BUF -1.0
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
BUF -4.1
OUR LINE
COVERED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
BUF · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
62%
BUF · MARKET WIN PROBABILITY
53%
DIFFERENCE
+9%
| SOURCE | BUF | LA | BUF WIN % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Closing line | -117 | +106 | 52.7% |
TEAM COMPARISON2022 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 1
+0.168Net EPA / play-0.105
+0.116 (2)Offense EPA / play-0.088 (29)
-0.052 (7)Defense EPA / play+0.017 (24)
49.0% (2)Offense success %41.0% (23)
GAME NARRATIVE
BUF B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked BUF. Projected margin: 4.1. Actual: 21. Off by 16.9 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 5 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 20.0 points.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
BUF
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
LA
Home Underdog 3-2 ATS (60%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2022 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2022 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 1
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 3 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| BUF@LAW5 2026 | BUF 37, LA 34 | LA | L |
| BUF@LAW14 2024 | BUF 42, LA 44 | BUF | L |
| LA@BUFW3 2020 | LA 32, BUF 35 | LA | L |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 1 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSBUF vs LA
Our model takes Buffalo Bills at 62% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project BUF by 4.1. The market has BUF at -1.0.
Buffalo Bills won, BUF 31, LA 10. Our model had favored Buffalo Bills at 62% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Buffalo Bills at -1.0, meaning the book expects Buffalo Bills to win by 1.0 points.
In Week 1, the Los Angeles Rams were without 1 player (Out or Doubtful).
Week 1 of the 2022 season, THU 8:20 PM.
Buffalo Bills, BUF 37, LA 34 in Week 5 of 2026.
By net EPA per play over the 2022 season, Buffalo Bills: BUF +0.168 against LA -0.105.
