2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
NO @ ATL – Week 1 2022
NO
ATL
NO
AWAY
27@26
NO +1
FINAL · WEEK 1
2022 SEASON
ATL
HOME
TIER B
PICK: NO
PICK WONATS ✗
Model confidence: NO 68%Projected margin: -3.5
NO
PICK SIDE
-6.0
SPREAD
-3.5
PROJ MARGIN
-237
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
NO B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
NAILED IT
Model projected NO by 3.5. Actual: 1 points. The model was within 2.5 points of the real margin.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 3 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 5.0 points.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -6.0 | NO market line | |
| MODEL ML | -237 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | -228 | Won · +$0.42 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
NO
Home Underdog 2-3 ATS (40%)Divisional 1-5 ATS (17%)
ATL
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)Home Underdog 3-2 ATS (60%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2022 SEASON
NO
Alvin Kamara
RB
211.7SEASON PPR
Chris Olave
WR
198.2SEASON PPR
Andy Dalton
QB
174.2SEASON PPR
ATL
Marcus Mariota
QB
196.6SEASON PPR
Drake London
WR
178.6SEASON PPR
Tyler Allgeier
RB
INJURY REPORTWEEK 1
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| NO@ATLW18 2025 | NO 17, ATL 19 | ATL | W |
| ATL@NOW12 2025 | ATL 24, NO 10 | ATL | W |
| ATL@NOW10 2024 | ATL 17, NO 20 | ATL | L |
| NO@ATLW4 2024 | NO 24, ATL 26 | NO | L |
| ATL@NOW18 2023 | ATL 17, NO 48 | NO | W |
WEEK 1 · OTHER GAMES