NE @ MIA – Week 1 2022
NE
MIA
NE
AWAY
7@20
MIA BY 13
FINAL · WEEK 1
2022 SEASON
Hard Rock Stadium · Miami Gardens, FL
MIA
HOME
Model confidence: NE 57%Our line: NE -2.5
NE
PICK SIDE
+3.0
MARKET SPREAD
-2.5
OUR LINE
-134
OUR ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON2022 SEASON · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 1
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2022 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
+0.035Net EPA / play+0.039
-0.054Offense EPA / play+0.047
-0.089Defense EPA / play+0.008
40.9%Offense success %44.5%
41.6%Defense success %
GAME NARRATIVE
NE C-tier pick misses. MIA takes it.
MISSED
Model picked NE but MIA won. Projected margin was 2.5, the model overestimated by 15.5 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 2 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 10.0 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
BETTING LINE
| SOURCE | NE | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| Closing line | +140 | -155 |
| Our fair price | -134 | +134 |
Our fair price carries no vig, so it is what the bet is worth, not what anyone will offer you.
SPREAD NE +3.0 · nflverse market average, not one book's number
RESULT Lost · -$1.00
OUR NUMBER
57%
MARKET, VIG REMOVED
41%
DIFFERENCE
+17%
Both figures are for NE. The market number strips the margin out first, so the two sides are measured the same way.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
NE
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
MIA
Divisional 5-1 ATS (83%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2022 SEASON
NE
Rhamondre Stevenson
RB
249.1 SEASON PPR
Jakobi Meyers
WR
182.3 SEASON PPR
Mac Jones
QB
170.1 SEASON PPR
MIA
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2022 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
New England PatriotsPASSING
Mac Jones2997 yd · 14 TD · 11 INT
RUSHING
Rhamondre Stevenson1040 yd · 5 TD
Damien Harris462 yd · 3 TD
Mac Jones102 yd · 1 TD
RECEIVING
Jakobi Meyers67 rec · 804 yd · 6 TD
DeVante Parker31 rec · 539 yd · 3 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 1
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| MIA@NEW18 2025 | MIA 10, NE 38 | NE | W |
| NE@MIAW2 2025 | NE 33, MIA 27 | MIA | L |
| NE@MIAW12 2024 | NE 15, MIA 34 | MIA | W |
| MIA@NEW5 2024 | MIA 15, NE 10 | MIA | W |
| NE@MIAW8 2023 | NE 17, MIA 31 | MIA | W |
COMMON QUESTIONSNE vs MIA
QUESTIONS
Our model takes New England Patriots at 57% win probability, a Tier C pick. The margin models project NE by 2.5. The market has NE at +3.0.
Week 1 of the 2022 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
New England Patriots, MIA 10, NE 38 in Week 18 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2022 season, Miami Dolphins: NE +0.035 against MIA +0.039.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 1 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
