2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
NE @ MIA – Week 1 2022
NE
MIA
NE
AWAY
7@20
MIA +13
FINAL · WEEK 1
2022 SEASON
MIA
HOME
TIER C
PICK: NE
PICK LOSTATS ✗
Model confidence: NE 57%Projected margin: 1.1
NE
PICK SIDE
+3.0
SPREAD
1.1
PROJ MARGIN
+154
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
NE C-tier pick misses. MIA takes it.
MISSED
Model picked NE but MIA won. Projected margin was 1.1 -- the model overestimated by 11.9 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 2 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 10.0 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | +3.0 | NE market line | |
| MODEL ML | +154 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | +140 | Lost · -$1.00 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
NE
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
MIA
Divisional 5-1 ATS (83%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2022 SEASON
NE
Rhamondre Stevenson
RB
249.1SEASON PPR
Jakobi Meyers
WR
182.3SEASON PPR
Mac Jones
QB
170.1SEASON PPR
MIA
Tyreek Hill
WR
341.2SEASON PPR
Jaylen Waddle
WR
259.2SEASON PPR
Tua Tagovailoa
QB
INJURY REPORTWEEK 1
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| MIA@NEW18 2025 | MIA 10, NE 38 | NE | W |
| NE@MIAW2 2025 | NE 33, MIA 27 | MIA | L |
| NE@MIAW12 2024 | NE 15, MIA 34 | MIA | W |
| MIA@NEW5 2024 | MIA 15, NE 10 | MIA | W |
| NE@MIAW8 2023 | NE 17, MIA 31 | MIA | W |
WEEK 1 · OTHER GAMES