Patriots vs Dolphins – Week 1 2022
NE
MIA
NE
AWAY
7@20
MIA BY 13
FINAL · WEEK 1
2022 SEASON
Hard Rock Stadium · Miami Gardens, FL
MIA
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: New England Patriots 7, Miami Dolphins 20.
Going in, our model had favored New England Patriots at 57% win probability, and the pick lost.
Model confidence: NE 57%Our line: NE -2.5
ODDS
SPREAD
NE +3.0
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
NE -2.5
OUR LINE
MISSED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
NE · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
57%
NE · MARKET WIN PROBABILITY
40%
DIFFERENCE
+17%
| SOURCE | NE | MIA | NE WIN % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Closing line | +140 | -155 | 40.4% |
WIN % is each book’s odds as a win chance, with the book’s cut taken out. The card above is their average.
TEAM COMPARISON2022 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 1
+0.035Net EPA / play+0.039
-0.054 (24)Offense EPA / play+0.047 (7)
-0.089 (3)Defense EPA / play+0.008 (20)
40.9% (24)Offense success %44.5% (16)
GAME NARRATIVE
NE C-tier pick misses. MIA takes it.
MISSED
Model picked NE but MIA won. Projected margin was 2.5, the model overestimated by 15.5 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 2 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 10.0 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
NE
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
MIA
Divisional 5-1 ATS (83%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2022 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2022 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 1
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| MIA@NEW18 2025 | MIA 10, NE 38 | NE | W |
| NE@MIAW2 2025 | NE 33, MIA 27 | MIA | L |
| NE@MIAW12 2024 | NE 15, MIA 34 | MIA | W |
| MIA@NEW5 2024 | MIA 15, NE 10 | MIA | W |
| NE@MIAW8 2023 | NE 17, MIA 31 | MIA | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 1 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSNE vs MIA
Our model takes New England Patriots at 57% win probability, a Tier C pick. The margin models project NE by 2.5. The market has NE at +3.0.
Miami Dolphins won, NE 7, MIA 20. Our model had favored New England Patriots at 57% win probability, and the pick lost.
The market has New England Patriots at +3.0, meaning the book expects New England Patriots to win by 3.0 points.
Week 1 of the 2022 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
New England Patriots, MIA 10, NE 38 in Week 18 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2022 season, Miami Dolphins: NE +0.035 against MIA +0.039.
