Patriots vs Dolphins – Week 8 2026
NE
MIA
NE
AWAY
OUR PICK
@
SUN 4:25 PM
WEEK 8 · 2026 SEASON
Hard Rock Stadium · Miami Gardens, FL
MIA
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Our model favors the Patriots over the Dolphins at 77% win probability. No betting line has been posted for this game yet.
Model confidence: NE 77%Our line: NE -10.0
80% range around our line: MIA by 7 to NE by 27. Four games in five land inside it.
Betting the NE game? Pro shows whether we flag it as a bet, at what price, and your stake at your unit size →
ODDS
SPREAD
NE —
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
NE -10.0
OUR LINE
MONEYLINE
NE · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
77%
NE · MARKET WIN PROBABILITY
76%
DIFFERENCE
+1%
| SPORTSBOOK | NE | MIA | NE WIN % |
|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings |
PREGAME SNAPSHOTWEEK 8 · WHAT MATTERS AT KICKOFF
TEAM COMPARISON2026 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES
+0.055Net EPA / play-0.224
+0.046 (11)Offense EPA / play-0.116 (29)
-0.009 (17)Defense EPA / play+0.108 (28)
45.4% (13)Offense success %37.6% (30)
PROJECTED MARGINHOW THE FINAL SCORE COULD LAND
GAME NARRATIVE
Early forecast: NE at 77%, backed by epa edge.
EPA EDGE
NE generates 0.046 EPA/play on offense. MIA's defense allows 0.108. That's a top-tier efficiency gap.
DRIVE EFF
NE scores 1.6 points per drive vs 1.0 for MIA. That's a substantial offensive rhythm gap.
BLOWOUT PROJ
Model projects a 10.0-point margin.
Multiple signals align in NE's favor. One of the cleaner setups on the slate.
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2026 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2026 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| MIA@NEW18 2025 | MIA 10, NE 38 | NE | W |
| NE@MIAW2 2025 | NE 33, MIA 27 | MIA | L |
| NE@MIAW12 2024 | NE 15, MIA 34 | MIA | W |
| MIA@NEW5 2024 | MIA 15, NE 10 | MIA | W |
| NE@MIAW8 2023 | NE 17, MIA 31 | MIA | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 8 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSNE vs MIA
Our model takes New England Patriots at 77% win probability. The margin models project NE by 10.0. No betting line has been posted for this game yet, so this is an early forecast that regenerates every Wednesday.
Our model favors New England Patriots at 77% win probability.
No betting line has been posted for this game yet.
Week 8 of the 2026 season, SUN 4:25 PM.
New England Patriots, MIA 10, NE 38 in Week 18 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2026 season, New England Patriots: NE +0.055 against MIA -0.224.
