NE @ MIA – Week 8 2026
NE
MIA
NE
AWAY
OUR PICK
@
SUN 4:25 PM
WEEK 8 · 2026 SEASON
MIA
HOME
Model confidence: NE 71%Projected margin: -5.1
NE
PICK SIDE
—
SPREAD
-5.1
PROJ MARGIN
—
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
TEAM COMPARISON2025 SEASON
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2025 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
+0.205Net EPA / play-0.105
+0.158Offense EPA / play-0.017
-0.047Defense EPA / play+0.088
48.4%Offense success %41.9%
44.6%Defense success %
PROJECTED MARGINEVERY OUTCOME THE MODEL CONSIDERS LIKELY
GAME NARRATIVE
Early forecast: NE at 71%, backed by epa edge.
EPA EDGE
NE generates 0.158 EPA/play on offense. MIA's defense allows 0.088. That's a top-tier efficiency gap.
DRIVE EFF
NE scores 2.2 points per drive vs 1.5 for MIA. That's a substantial offensive rhythm gap.
Net-positive signal profile for NE. This forecast updates every Wednesday as the season plays out.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | — | NE market line | |
| MONEYLINE | Moneyline not recorded for this game | ||
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2025 SEASON
NE
D.Maye
QB
352.0SEASON PPR
S.Diggs
WR
210.3SEASON PPR
T.Henderson
RB
206.2SEASON PPR
MIA
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2025 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
New England PatriotsPASSING
D.Maye4394 yd · 31 TD · 8 INT
RUSHING
T.Henderson911 yd · 9 TD
R.Stevenson603 yd · 7 TD
D.Maye450 yd · 4 TD
RECEIVING
S.Diggs85 rec · 1013 yd · 4 TD
H.Henry60 rec · 768 yd · 7 TD
K.Boutte33 rec · 551 yd · 6 TD
M.Hollins46 rec · 550 yd · 2 TD
VS
4,394PASSyds2,660
1,964RUSHyds
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| MIA@NEW18 2026 | — | NE | — |
| MIA@NEW18 2025 | MIA 10, NE 38 | NE | W |
| NE@MIAW2 2025 | NE 33, MIA 27 | MIA | L |
| NE@MIAW12 2024 | NE 15, MIA 34 | MIA | W |
| MIA@NEW5 2024 | MIA 15, NE 10 | MIA | W |
COMMON QUESTIONSNE vs MIA
Who is favored in New England Patriots at Miami Dolphins?
Our model takes New England Patriots at 71% win probability. The margin models project NE by 5.1. No betting line has been posted for this game yet, so this is an early forecast that regenerates every Wednesday.
When do the New England Patriots and Miami Dolphins play?
Week 8 of the 2026 season, SUN 4:25 PM.
Who won the last New England Patriots vs Miami Dolphins game?
New England Patriots, 10-38 in Week 18 of 2025.
Which team has been better, the New England Patriots or the Miami Dolphins?
By net EPA per play over the 2025 season, New England Patriots: NE +0.205 against MIA -0.105.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake — plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
