TEAM COMPARISON2026 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES
-0.058Net EPA / play-0.046
-0.080 (26)Offense EPA / play-0.046 (21)
-0.022 (15)Defense EPA / play+0.000 (18)
39.1% (28)Offense success %41.7% (21)
PROJECTED MARGINHOW THE FINAL SCORE COULD LAND
WHY THIS PICK
PIT is our early forecast in CLE @ PIT (Week 8, 2026). The model assigns 71% confidence and projects PIT by 7.5. No betting line has been posted for this game yet, so the model re-runs this forecast every Wednesday as the season plays out.
MODEL AGREEMENT
All three models picked this side. The tier above is a separate read: it reflects how big a margin they project, not how many agreed.
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
Our model takes Pittsburgh Steelers at 71% win probability. The margin models project PIT by 7.5. No betting line has been posted for this game yet, so this is an early forecast that regenerates every Wednesday.
Our model favors Pittsburgh Steelers at 71% win probability.
No betting line has been posted for this game yet.
Week 8 of the 2026 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Cleveland Browns, PIT 24, CLE 27 in Week 4 of 2026.
By net EPA per play over the 2026 season, Pittsburgh Steelers: CLE -0.058 against PIT -0.046.
WIN % is each book’s odds as a win chance, with the book’s cut taken out. The card above is their average. Last synced Sun 1:00 PM ET.
OPEN · CURRENT · MODEL
MARKET
OPEN
CURRENT
MODEL
SPREAD
PIT -6.0
PIT -6.0
PIT -7.5
MONEYLINE
PIT -258
PIT -258
PIT -246
OPEN is the first price we recorded, not necessarily the true market opener. OPEN and CURRENT are the median across books, rounded to the half point. CURRENT excludes any price posted after kickoff.
43.3% (16)Defense success %44.4% (22)
-0.004 (20)Pass EPA / play-0.103 (26)
-0.188 (29)Rush EPA / play+0.066 (5)
18.6 (27)Points / game22.2 (18)
22.4 (14)Points allowed / game21.8 (10)
58.5%Pass rate66.2%
50.0%Red zone TD %54.5%
19.1%4th down go %13.5%
BrownsSteelers
Likely final margins. Each team's shaded area is its win probability and the marker is our line. Four times in five the real margin lands between Browns by 10 and Steelers by 25. The peak is where we lean, not a forecast of the score.