Browns vs Steelers – Week 6 2025
CLE
PIT
CLE
AWAY
9@23
PIT BY 14
FINAL · WEEK 6
2025 SEASON
Acrisure Stadium · Pittsburgh, PA
PIT
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Cleveland Browns 9, Pittsburgh Steelers 23.
Going in, our model had favored Pittsburgh Steelers at 76% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 1 Browns.
Model confidence: PIT 76%Our line: PIT -9.7
ODDS
SPREAD
PIT -5.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
PIT -9.7
OUR LINE
COVERED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
PIT · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
TEAM COMPARISON2025 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 6
-0.094Net EPA / play+0.007
-0.190 (31)Offense EPA / play+0.025 (16)
-0.096 (5)Defense EPA / play+0.018 (18)
34.5% (32)Offense success %44.0% (17)
GAME NARRATIVE
PIT A+-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked PIT. Projected margin: 9.7. Actual: 14. Off by 4.3 points but directionally right.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 8.5 points.
Another data point for the model. A+-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
CLE
Home Underdog 5-2 ATS (71%)Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
PIT
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)Home Underdog 3-2 ATS (60%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
64°F
WIND
8 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2025 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2025 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 6
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| PIT@CLEW4 2026 | PIT 24, CLE 27 | PIT | L |
| PIT@CLEW17 2025 | PIT 6, CLE 13 | PIT | L |
| CLE@PITW14 2024 | CLE 14, PIT 27 | PIT | W |
| PIT@CLEW12 2024 | PIT 19, CLE 24 | PIT | L |
| PIT@CLEW11 2023 | PIT 10, CLE 13 | PIT | L |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 6 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSCLE vs PIT
Our model takes Pittsburgh Steelers at 76% win probability, a Tier A+ pick. The margin models project PIT by 9.7. The market has PIT at -5.5.
Pittsburgh Steelers won, CLE 9, PIT 23. Our model had favored Pittsburgh Steelers at 76% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Pittsburgh Steelers at -5.5, meaning the book expects Pittsburgh Steelers to win by 5.5 points.
In Week 6, the Cleveland Browns were without 1 player (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 37.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 46.4, 8.9 above the market.
Week 6 of the 2025 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Cleveland Browns, PIT 24, CLE 27 in Week 4 of 2026.
By net EPA per play over the 2025 season, Pittsburgh Steelers: CLE -0.094 against PIT +0.007.
