2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
LAC @ MIA – Week 6 2025
LAC
MIA
LAC
AWAY
29@27
LAC +2
FINAL · WEEK 6
2025 SEASON
MIA
HOME
TIER C
PICK: LAC
PICK WONATS ✗
Model confidence: LAC 59%Projected margin: -0.4
LAC
PICK SIDE
-3.5
SPREAD
-0.4
PROJ MARGIN
-165
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
LAC C-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
NAILED IT
Model projected LAC by 0.4. Actual: 2 points. The model was within 1.6 points of the real margin.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 11 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
BAD BEAT
Missed the spread by just 1.5 points -- a bad-beat loss.
Another data point for the model. C-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -3.5 | LAC market line | |
| MODEL ML | -165 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | — | Won · +$0.61 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
LAC
Divisional 5-1 ATS (83%)Road Favorite 1-4 ATS (20%)
MIA
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)Home Underdog 3-2 ATS (60%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
85°F
WIND
4 MPH
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2025 SEASON
LAC
J.Herbert
QB
286.9SEASON PPR
K.Allen
WR
182.7SEASON PPR
L.McConkey
WR
180.9SEASON PPR
MIA
D.Achane
RB
322.8SEASON PPR
J.Waddle
WR
194.1SEASON PPR
T.Tagovailoa
QB
INJURY REPORTWEEK 6
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 3 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| MIA@LACW1 2023 | MIA 36, LAC 34 | LAC | L |
| MIA@LACW14 2022 | MIA 17, LAC 23 | MIA | L |
| LAC@MIAW10 2020 | LAC 21, MIA 29 | MIA | W |
WEEK 6 · OTHER GAMES