Chargers vs Dolphins – Week 6 2025
LAC
MIA
LAC
AWAY
29@27
LAC BY 2
FINAL · WEEK 6
2025 SEASON
Hard Rock Stadium · Miami Gardens, FL
MIA
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Los Angeles Chargers 29, Miami Dolphins 27.
Going in, our model had favored Los Angeles Chargers at 59% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 4 Chargers, 2 Dolphins.
Model confidence: LAC 59%Our line: LAC -3.1
ODDS
SPREAD
LAC -3.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
LAC -3.1
OUR LINE
MISSED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
LAC · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
59%
TEAM COMPARISON2025 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 6
+0.059Net EPA / play-0.105
-0.024 (25)Offense EPA / play-0.017 (22)
-0.083 (7)Defense EPA / play+0.088 (26)
43.1% (19)Offense success %41.9% (27)
GAME NARRATIVE
LAC C-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
NAILED IT
Model projected LAC by 3.1. Actual: 2 points. The model was within 1.1 points of the real margin.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 11 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
BAD BEAT
Missed the spread by just 1.5 points, a bad-beat loss.
Another data point for the model. C-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
LAC
Divisional 5-1 ATS (83%)Road Favorite 1-4 ATS (20%)
MIA
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)Home Underdog 3-2 ATS (60%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
85°F
WIND
4 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2025 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2025 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 6
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 3 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| MIA@LACW1 2023 | MIA 36, LAC 34 | LAC | L |
| MIA@LACW14 2022 | MIA 17, LAC 23 | MIA | L |
| LAC@MIAW10 2020 | LAC 21, MIA 29 | MIA | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 6 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSLAC vs MIA
Our model takes Los Angeles Chargers at 59% win probability, a Tier C pick. The margin models project LAC by 3.1. The market has LAC at -3.5.
Los Angeles Chargers won, LAC 29, MIA 27. Our model had favored Los Angeles Chargers at 59% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Los Angeles Chargers at -3.5, meaning the book expects Los Angeles Chargers to win by 3.5 points.
In Week 6, the Los Angeles Chargers were without 4 players (Out or Doubtful) and the Miami Dolphins were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 45.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 46.2, 0.7 above the market.
Week 6 of the 2025 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Miami Dolphins, MIA 36, LAC 34 in Week 1 of 2023.
By net EPA per play over the 2025 season, Los Angeles Chargers: LAC +0.059 against MIA -0.105.
