2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
MIA @ LAC – Week 1 2023
MIA
LAC
MIA
AWAY
36@34
MIA +2
FINAL · WEEK 1
2023 SEASON
LAC
HOME
TIER B
PICK: LAC
PICK LOSTATS ✗
Model confidence: LAC 65%Projected margin: 3.3
LAC
PICK SIDE
-3.0
SPREAD
3.3
PROJ MARGIN
-154
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
LAC B-tier pick misses. MIA takes it.
MISSED
Model picked LAC but MIA won. Projected margin was 3.3 -- the model overestimated by 5.3 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 11 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 5.0 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -3.0 | LAC market line | |
| MODEL ML | -154 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | -162 | Lost · -$1.00 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
MIA
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
LAC
Divisional 0-5 ATS (0%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2023 SEASON
MIA
Tyreek Hill
WR
376.4SEASON PPR
Tua Tagovailoa
QB
270.4SEASON PPR
Raheem Mostert
RB
267.7SEASON PPR
LAC
Keenan Allen
WR
278.9SEASON PPR
Justin Herbert
QB
234.2SEASON PPR
Austin Ekeler
RB
INJURY REPORTWEEK 1
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 3 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| LAC@MIAW6 2025 | LAC 29, MIA 27 | LAC | W |
| MIA@LACW14 2022 | MIA 17, LAC 23 | MIA | L |
| LAC@MIAW10 2020 | LAC 21, MIA 29 | MIA | W |
WEEK 1 · OTHER GAMES