Dolphins vs Chargers – Week 1 2023
MIA
LAC
MIA
AWAY
36@34
MIA BY 2
FINAL · WEEK 1
2023 SEASON
SoFi Stadium · Inglewood, CA
LAC
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Miami Dolphins 36, Los Angeles Chargers 34.
Going in, our model had favored Los Angeles Chargers at 65% win probability, and the pick lost.
Out or doubtful: 2 Dolphins, 2 Chargers.
Model confidence: LAC 65%Our line: LAC -5.1
ODDS
SPREAD
LAC -3.0
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
LAC -5.1
OUR LINE
MISSED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
LAC · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
65%
LAC · MARKET WIN PROBABILITY
60%
DIFFERENCE
+5%
| SOURCE | MIA | LAC | LAC WIN % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Closing line | +136 | -162 | 59.7% |
TEAM COMPARISON2023 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 1
+0.136Net EPA / play-0.088
+0.097 (4)Offense EPA / play-0.076 (24)
-0.039 (15)Defense EPA / play+0.012 (25)
47.2% (5)Offense success %41.0% (22)
GAME NARRATIVE
LAC B-tier pick misses. MIA takes it.
MISSED
Model picked LAC but MIA won. Projected margin was 5.1, the model overestimated by 7.1 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 11 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 5.0 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
MIA
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
LAC
Divisional 0-5 ATS (0%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2023 SEASON
LAC
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2023 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 1
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 3 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| LAC@MIAW6 2025 | LAC 29, MIA 27 | LAC | W |
| MIA@LACW14 2022 | MIA 17, LAC 23 | MIA | L |
| LAC@MIAW10 2020 | LAC 21, MIA 29 | MIA | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 1 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSMIA vs LAC
Our model takes Los Angeles Chargers at 65% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project LAC by 5.1. The market has LAC at -3.0.
Miami Dolphins won, MIA 36, LAC 34. Our model had favored Los Angeles Chargers at 65% win probability, and the pick lost.
The market has Los Angeles Chargers at -3.0, meaning the book expects Los Angeles Chargers to win by 3.0 points.
In Week 1, the Miami Dolphins were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful) and the Los Angeles Chargers were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful).
Week 1 of the 2023 season, SUN 4:25 PM.
Los Angeles Chargers, LAC 29, MIA 27 in Week 6 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2023 season, Miami Dolphins: MIA +0.136 against LAC -0.088.
