2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
TEN @ NO – Week 1 2023
TEN
NO
TEN
AWAY
15@16
NO +1
FINAL · WEEK 1
2023 SEASON
NO
HOME
TIER B
PICK: NO
PICK WONATS ✗
Model confidence: NO 69%Projected margin: 5.1
NO
PICK SIDE
-3.0
SPREAD
5.1
PROJ MARGIN
-154
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
NO B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked NO. Projected margin: 5.1. Actual: 1. Off by 4.1 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 8 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 2.0 points.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -3.0 | NO market line | |
| MODEL ML | -154 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | -148 | Won · +$0.65 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
TEN
Home Underdog 4-2 ATS (67%)Divisional 1-5 ATS (17%)
NO
Divisional 3-2 ATS (60%)Road Favorite 1-4 ATS (20%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2023 SEASON
TEN
Derrick Henry
RB
246.7SEASON PPR
DeAndre Hopkins
WR
223.6SEASON PPR
Tyjae Spears
RB
153.8SEASON PPR
NO
Derek Carr
QB
241.1SEASON PPR
Alvin Kamara
RB
233.0SEASON PPR
Chris Olave
WR
INJURY REPORTWEEK 1
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| NO@TENW17 2025 | NO 34, TEN 26 | NO | W |
| NO@TENW10 2021 | NO 21, TEN 23 | TEN | W |
WEEK 1 · OTHER GAMES