TEN @ NO – Week 1 2023
TEN
NO
TEN
AWAY
15@16
NO BY 1
FINAL · WEEK 1
2023 SEASON
Caesars Superdome · New Orleans, LA
NO
HOME
Model confidence: NO 69%Our line: NO -6.5
NO
PICK SIDE
-3.0
MARKET SPREAD
-6.5
OUR LINE
-218
OUR ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON2023 SEASON · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 1
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2023 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
-0.055Net EPA / play+0.086
-0.047Offense EPA / play-0.014
+0.007Defense EPA / play-0.100
39.7%Offense success %42.1%
43.6%Defense success %
GAME NARRATIVE
NO B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked NO. Projected margin: 6.5. Actual: 1. Off by 5.5 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 8 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 2.0 points.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| SOURCE | TEN | NO |
|---|---|---|
| Closing line | +124 | -148 |
| Our fair price | +218 | -218 |
Our fair price carries no vig, so it is what the bet is worth, not what anyone will offer you.
SPREAD NO -3.0 · nflverse market average, not one book's number
RESULT Won · +$0.65
OUR NUMBER
69%
MARKET, VIG REMOVED
57%
DIFFERENCE
+11%
Both figures are for NO. The market number strips the margin out first, so the two sides are measured the same way.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
TEN
Home Underdog 4-2 ATS (67%)Divisional 1-5 ATS (17%)
NO
Divisional 3-2 ATS (60%)Road Favorite 1-4 ATS (20%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2023 SEASON
TEN
Derrick Henry
RB
246.7 SEASON PPR
DeAndre Hopkins
WR
223.6 SEASON PPR
Tyjae Spears
RB
153.8 SEASON PPR
NO
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2023 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Tennessee TitansPASSING
Will Levis1808 yd · 8 TD · 4 INT
RUSHING
Derrick Henry1167 yd · 12 TD
Tyjae Spears453 yd · 2 TD
Ryan Tannehill74 yd · 1 TD
RECEIVING
DeAndre Hopkins75 rec · 1057 yd · 7 TD
Chig Okonkwo54 rec · 528 yd · 1 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 1
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| NO@TENW17 2025 | NO 34, TEN 26 | NO | W |
| NO@TENW10 2021 | NO 21, TEN 23 | TEN | W |
COMMON QUESTIONSTEN vs NO
QUESTIONS
Our model takes New Orleans Saints at 69% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project NO by 6.5. The market has NO at -3.0.
Week 1 of the 2023 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
New Orleans Saints, NO 34, TEN 26 in Week 17 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2023 season, New Orleans Saints: TEN -0.055 against NO +0.086.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 1 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
