Titans vs Saints – Week 1 2023
TEN
NO
TEN
AWAY
15@16
NO BY 1
FINAL · WEEK 1
2023 SEASON
Caesars Superdome · New Orleans, LA
NO
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Tennessee Titans 15, New Orleans Saints 16.
Going in, our model had favored New Orleans Saints at 69% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 1 Titans, 2 Saints.
Model confidence: NO 69%Our line: NO -6.5
ODDS
SPREAD
NO -3.0
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
NO -6.5
OUR LINE
MISSED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
NO · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
69%
NO · MARKET WIN PROBABILITY
58%
DIFFERENCE
+11%
| SOURCE | TEN | NO | NO WIN % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Closing line | +124 | -148 | 57.5% |
WIN % is each book’s odds as a win chance, with the book’s cut taken out. The card above is their average.
TEAM COMPARISON2023 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 1
-0.055Net EPA / play+0.086
-0.047 (18)Offense EPA / play-0.014 (13)
+0.007 (23)Defense EPA / play-0.100 (5)
39.7% (26)Offense success %42.1% (15)
GAME NARRATIVE
NO B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked NO. Projected margin: 6.5. Actual: 1. Off by 5.5 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 8 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 2.0 points.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
TEN
Home Underdog 4-2 ATS (67%)Divisional 1-5 ATS (17%)
NO
Divisional 3-2 ATS (60%)Road Favorite 1-4 ATS (20%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2023 SEASON
NO
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2023 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Tennessee TitansPASSING
Will Levis1808 yd · 8 TD · 4 INT
RECEIVING
DeAndre Hopkins
INJURY REPORTWEEK 1
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| NO@TENW17 2025 | NO 34, TEN 26 | NO | W |
| NO@TENW10 2021 | NO 21, TEN 23 | TEN | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 1 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSTEN vs NO
Our model takes New Orleans Saints at 69% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project NO by 6.5. The market has NO at -3.0.
New Orleans Saints won, TEN 15, NO 16. Our model had favored New Orleans Saints at 69% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has New Orleans Saints at -3.0, meaning the book expects New Orleans Saints to win by 3.0 points.
In Week 1, the Tennessee Titans were without 1 player (Out or Doubtful) and the New Orleans Saints were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful).
Week 1 of the 2023 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
New Orleans Saints, NO 34, TEN 26 in Week 17 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2023 season, New Orleans Saints: TEN -0.055 against NO +0.086.
