Bills vs Jets – Week 1 2023
BUF
NYJ
BUF
AWAY
16@22
NYJ BY 6
FINAL · WEEK 1
2023 SEASON
MetLife Stadium · East Rutherford, NJ
NYJ
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Buffalo Bills 16, New York Jets 22.
Going in, our model had favored Buffalo Bills at 78% win probability, and the pick lost.
Model confidence: BUF 78%Our line: BUF -10.5
ODDS
SPREAD
BUF -2.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
BUF -10.5
OUR LINE
MISSED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
BUF · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
78%
BUF · MARKET WIN PROBABILITY
55%
DIFFERENCE
+23%
| SOURCE | BUF | NYJ | BUF WIN % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Closing line | -135 |
TEAM COMPARISON2023 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 1
+0.182Net EPA / play-0.133
+0.108 (2)Offense EPA / play-0.252 (32)
-0.074 (8)Defense EPA / play-0.119 (3)
49.0% (2)Offense success %35.0% (32)
GAME NARRATIVE
BUF A+-tier pick misses. NYJ takes it.
MISSED
Model picked BUF but NYJ won. Projected margin was 10.5, the model overestimated by 16.5 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 9 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 8.5 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
BUF
No noteworthy trends
NYJ
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2023 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2023 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 1
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| NYJ@BUFW18 2025 | NYJ 8, BUF 35 | BUF | W |
| BUF@NYJW2 2025 | BUF 30, NYJ 10 | BUF | W |
| NYJ@BUFW17 2024 | NYJ 14, BUF 40 | BUF | W |
| BUF@NYJW6 2024 | BUF 23, NYJ 20 | BUF | W |
| NYJ@BUFW11 2023 | NYJ 6, BUF 32 | BUF | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 1 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSBUF vs NYJ
Our model takes Buffalo Bills at 78% win probability, a Tier A+ pick. The margin models project BUF by 10.5. The market has BUF at -2.5.
New York Jets won, BUF 16, NYJ 22. Our model had favored Buffalo Bills at 78% win probability, and the pick lost.
The market has Buffalo Bills at -2.5, meaning the book expects Buffalo Bills to win by 2.5 points.
Week 1 of the 2023 season, MON 8:15 PM.
Buffalo Bills, NYJ 8, BUF 35 in Week 18 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2023 season, Buffalo Bills: BUF +0.182 against NYJ -0.133.
