2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
BUF @ NYJ – Week 1 2023
BUF
NYJ
BUF
AWAY
16@22
NYJ +6
FINAL · WEEK 1
2023 SEASON
NYJ
HOME
TIER A+
PICK: BUF
PICK LOSTATS ✗
Model confidence: BUF 78%Projected margin: -8.3
BUF
PICK SIDE
-2.5
SPREAD
-8.3
PROJ MARGIN
-143
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
BUF A+-tier pick misses. NYJ takes it.
MISSED
Model picked BUF but NYJ won. Projected margin was 8.3 -- the model overestimated by 14.3 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 9 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 8.5 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -2.5 | BUF market line | |
| MODEL ML | -143 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | -135 | Lost · -$1.00 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
BUF
Road Favorite 2-3 ATS (40%)
NYJ
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2023 SEASON
BUF
Josh Allen
QB
392.6SEASON PPR
Stefon Diggs
WR
273.8SEASON PPR
James Cook
RB
232.7SEASON PPR
NYJ
Breece Hall
RB
290.5SEASON PPR
Garrett Wilson
WR
213.2SEASON PPR
Tyler Conklin
TE
INJURY REPORTWEEK 1
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| NYJ@BUFW18 2025 | NYJ 8, BUF 35 | BUF | W |
| BUF@NYJW2 2025 | BUF 30, NYJ 10 | BUF | W |
| NYJ@BUFW17 2024 | NYJ 14, BUF 40 | BUF | W |
| BUF@NYJW6 2024 | BUF 23, NYJ 20 | BUF | W |
| NYJ@BUFW11 2023 | NYJ 6, BUF 32 | BUF | W |
WEEK 1 · OTHER GAMES