Jets vs Bills – Week 18 2025
NYJ
BUF
NYJ
AWAY
8@35
BUF BY 27
FINAL · WEEK 18
2025 SEASON
Highmark Stadium · Orchard Park, NY
BUF
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: New York Jets 8, Buffalo Bills 35.
Going in, our model had favored Buffalo Bills at 85% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 8 Jets, 3 Bills.
Model confidence: BUF 85%Our line: BUF -13.7
ODDS
SPREAD
BUF -12.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
BUF -13.7
OUR LINE
COVERED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
BUF · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
TEAM COMPARISON2025 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 18
-0.274Net EPA / play+0.152
-0.127 (29)Offense EPA / play+0.136 (3)
+0.147 (31)Defense EPA / play-0.016 (13)
40.7% (29)Offense success %48.5% (2)
GAME NARRATIVE
BUF S-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked BUF. Projected margin: 13.7. Actual: 27. Off by 13.3 points but directionally right.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 14.5 points.
COLD GAME
27°F at game time. Expect suppressed passing efficiency and lower scoring.
Another data point for the model. S-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
NYJ
Divisional 0-6 ATS (0%)
BUF
Cold Weather 3-2 ATS (60%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
27°F
WIND
13 MPH
COLD GAME
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2025 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2025 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 18
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| BUF@NYJW2 2025 | BUF 30, NYJ 10 | BUF | W |
| NYJ@BUFW17 2024 | NYJ 14, BUF 40 | BUF | W |
| BUF@NYJW6 2024 | BUF 23, NYJ 20 | BUF | W |
| NYJ@BUFW11 2023 | NYJ 6, BUF 32 | BUF | W |
| BUF@NYJW1 2023 | BUF 16, NYJ 22 | BUF | L |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 18 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSNYJ vs BUF
Our model takes Buffalo Bills at 85% win probability, a Tier S pick. The margin models project BUF by 13.7. The market has BUF at -12.5.
Buffalo Bills won, NYJ 8, BUF 35. Our model had favored Buffalo Bills at 85% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Buffalo Bills at -12.5, meaning the book expects Buffalo Bills to win by 12.5 points.
In Week 18, the New York Jets were without 8 players (Out or Doubtful) and the Buffalo Bills were without 3 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 39.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 45.4, 5.9 above the market.
Week 18 of the 2025 season, SUN 4:25 PM.
Buffalo Bills, BUF 30, NYJ 10 in Week 2 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2025 season, Buffalo Bills: NYJ -0.274 against BUF +0.152.
