2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
NYJ @ BUF – Week 18 2025
NYJ
BUF
NYJ
AWAY
8@35
BUF +27
FINAL · WEEK 18
2025 SEASON
BUF
HOME
TIER S
PICK: BUF
PICK WONATS ✓
Model confidence: BUF 85%Projected margin: 12.4
BUF
PICK SIDE
-12.5
SPREAD
12.4
PROJ MARGIN
-604
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
COVERED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
BUF S-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked BUF. Projected margin: 12.4. Actual: 27. Off by 14.6 points but directionally right.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 14.5 points.
COLD GAME
27°F at game time. Expect suppressed passing efficiency and lower scoring.
Another data point for the model. S-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -12.5 | BUF market line | |
| MODEL ML | -604 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | — | Won · +$0.17 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
NYJ
Divisional 0-6 ATS (0%)
BUF
Cold Weather 3-2 ATS (60%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
27°F
WIND
13 MPH
COLD GAME
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2025 SEASON
NYJ
B.Hall
RB
207.7SEASON PPR
J.Fields
QB
142.7SEASON PPR
G.Wilson
WR
99.5SEASON PPR
BUF
J.Allen
QB
364.6SEASON PPR
J.Cook
RB
302.2SEASON PPR
K.Shakir
WR
INJURY REPORTWEEK 18
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| BUF@NYJW2 2025 | BUF 30, NYJ 10 | BUF | W |
| NYJ@BUFW17 2024 | NYJ 14, BUF 40 | BUF | W |
| BUF@NYJW6 2024 | BUF 23, NYJ 20 | BUF | W |
| NYJ@BUFW11 2023 | NYJ 6, BUF 32 | BUF | W |
| BUF@NYJW1 2023 | BUF 16, NYJ 22 | BUF | L |
WEEK 18 · OTHER GAMES