Browns vs Bengals – Week 18 2025
CLE
CIN
CLE
AWAY
20@18
CLE BY 2
FINAL · WEEK 18
2025 SEASON
Paycor Stadium · Cincinnati, OH
CIN
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Cleveland Browns 20, Cincinnati Bengals 18.
Going in, our model had favored Cincinnati Bengals at 74% win probability, and the pick lost.
Out or doubtful: 4 Browns, 4 Bengals.
Model confidence: CIN 74%Our line: CIN -8.7
ODDS
SPREAD
CIN -9.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
CIN -8.7
OUR LINE
MISSED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
CIN · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
TEAM COMPARISON2025 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 18
-0.094Net EPA / play-0.138
-0.190 (31)Offense EPA / play-0.009 (19)
-0.096 (5)Defense EPA / play+0.130 (29)
34.5% (32)Offense success %45.5% (11)
GAME NARRATIVE
CIN A-tier pick misses. CLE takes it.
MISSED
Model picked CIN but CLE won. Projected margin was 8.7, the model overestimated by 10.7 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 3 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 11.5 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
CLE
Home Underdog 5-2 ATS (71%)Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
CIN
Home Underdog 2-3 ATS (40%)Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
37°F
WIND
0 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2025 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2025 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 18
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| CIN@CLEW1 2025 | CIN 17, CLE 16 | CIN | W |
| CLE@CINW16 2024 | CLE 6, CIN 24 | CIN | W |
| CIN@CLEW7 2024 | CIN 21, CLE 14 | CIN | W |
| CLE@CINW18 2023 | CLE 14, CIN 31 | CLE | L |
| CIN@CLEW1 2023 | CIN 3, CLE 24 | CIN | L |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 18 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSCLE vs CIN
Our model takes Cincinnati Bengals at 74% win probability, a Tier A pick. The margin models project CIN by 8.7. The market has CIN at -9.5.
Cleveland Browns won, CLE 20, CIN 18. Our model had favored Cincinnati Bengals at 74% win probability, and the pick lost.
The market has Cincinnati Bengals at -9.5, meaning the book expects Cincinnati Bengals to win by 9.5 points.
In Week 18, the Cleveland Browns were without 4 players (Out or Doubtful) and the Cincinnati Bengals were without 4 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 47.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 46.2, 1.3 below the market.
Week 18 of the 2025 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Cincinnati Bengals, CIN 17, CLE 16 in Week 1 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2025 season, Cleveland Browns: CLE -0.094 against CIN -0.138.
