CLE @ CIN – Week 18 2025
CLE
CIN
CLE
AWAY
20@18
CLE BY 2
FINAL · WEEK 18
2025 SEASON
Paycor Stadium · Cincinnati, OH
CIN
HOME
Model confidence: CIN 74%Our line: CIN -8.7
CIN
PICK SIDE
-9.5
MARKET SPREAD
-8.7
OUR LINE
-285
OUR ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON2025 SEASON · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 18
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2025 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
-0.094Net EPA / play-0.138
-0.190Offense EPA / play-0.009
-0.096Defense EPA / play+0.130
34.5%Offense success %45.5%
40.2%Defense success %
GAME NARRATIVE
CIN A-tier pick misses. CLE takes it.
MISSED
Model picked CIN but CLE won. Projected margin was 8.7, the model overestimated by 10.7 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 3 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 11.5 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
BETTING LINE
| SOURCE | CLE | CIN |
|---|---|---|
| Closing line | +350 | -455 |
| Our fair price | +285 | -285 |
Our fair price carries no vig, so it is what the bet is worth, not what anyone will offer you.
SPREAD CIN -9.5 · nflverse market average, not one book's number
RESULT Lost · -$1.00
OUR NUMBER
74%
MARKET, VIG REMOVED
79%
DIFFERENCE
-5%
Both figures are for CIN. The market number strips the margin out first, so the two sides are measured the same way.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
CLE
Home Underdog 5-2 ATS (71%)Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
CIN
Home Underdog 2-3 ATS (40%)Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
37°F
WIND
0 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2025 SEASON
CLE
H.Fannin
TE
186.4 SEASON PPR
Q.Judkins
RB
169.8 SEASON PPR
J.Jeudy
WR
120.7 SEASON PPR
CIN
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2025 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Cleveland BrownsPASSING
S.Sanders1400 yd · 7 TD · 10 INT
RUSHING
Q.Judkins827 yd · 7 TD
D.Sampson175 yd · 0 TD
S.Sanders169 yd · 1 TD
RECEIVING
H.Fannin72 rec · 731 yd · 6 TD
J.Jeudy50 rec · 602 yd · 2 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 18
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| CIN@CLEW1 2025 | CIN 17, CLE 16 | CIN | W |
| CLE@CINW16 2024 | CLE 6, CIN 24 | CIN | W |
| CIN@CLEW7 2024 | CIN 21, CLE 14 | CIN | W |
| CLE@CINW18 2023 | CLE 14, CIN 31 | CLE | L |
| CIN@CLEW1 2023 | CIN 3, CLE 24 | CIN | L |
COMMON QUESTIONSCLE vs CIN
QUESTIONS
Our model takes Cincinnati Bengals at 74% win probability, a Tier A pick. The margin models project CIN by 8.7. The market has CIN at -9.5.
The model projects 46.2 combined points. The market total is 47.5.
Week 18 of the 2025 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Cincinnati Bengals, CIN 17, CLE 16 in Week 1 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2025 season, Cleveland Browns: CLE -0.094 against CIN -0.138.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 18 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
