2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
CLE @ CIN – Week 18 2025
CLE
CIN
CLE
AWAY
20@18
CLE +2
FINAL · WEEK 18
2025 SEASON
CIN
HOME
TIER A
PICK: CIN
PICK LOSTATS ✗
Model confidence: CIN 74%Projected margin: 6.2
CIN
PICK SIDE
-9.5
SPREAD
6.2
PROJ MARGIN
-392
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
CIN A-tier pick misses. CLE takes it.
MISSED
Model picked CIN but CLE won. Projected margin was 6.2 -- the model overestimated by 8.2 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 3 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 11.5 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -9.5 | CIN market line | |
| MODEL ML | -392 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | — | Lost · -$1.00 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
CLE
Home Underdog 5-2 ATS (71%)Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
CIN
Home Underdog 2-3 ATS (40%)Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
37°F
WIND
0 MPH
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2025 SEASON
CLE
H.Fannin
TE
186.4SEASON PPR
Q.Judkins
RB
169.8SEASON PPR
J.Jeudy
WR
120.7SEASON PPR
CIN
J.Chase
WR
313.6SEASON PPR
C.Brown
RB
282.6SEASON PPR
T.Higgins
WR
INJURY REPORTWEEK 18
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| CIN@CLEW1 2025 | CIN 17, CLE 16 | CIN | W |
| CLE@CINW16 2024 | CLE 6, CIN 24 | CIN | W |
| CIN@CLEW7 2024 | CIN 21, CLE 14 | CIN | W |
| CLE@CINW18 2023 | CLE 14, CIN 31 | CLE | L |
| CIN@CLEW1 2023 | CIN 3, CLE 24 | CIN | L |
WEEK 18 · OTHER GAMES