2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
CLE @ CIN – Week 18 2023
CLE
CIN
CLE
AWAY
14@31
CIN +17
FINAL · WEEK 18
2023 SEASON
CIN
HOME
TIER C
PICK: CLE
PICK LOSTATS ✗
Model confidence: CLE 57%Projected margin: -1.5
CLE
PICK SIDE
+7.5
SPREAD
-1.5
PROJ MARGIN
+294
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
CLE C-tier pick misses. CIN takes it.
MISSED
Model picked CLE but CIN won. Projected margin was 1.5 -- the model overestimated by 18.5 points.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 9.5 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | +7.5 | CLE market line | |
| MODEL ML | +294 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | +285 | Lost · -$1.00 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
CLE
No noteworthy trends
CIN
Divisional 1-5 ATS (17%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
38°F
WIND
12 MPH
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2023 SEASON
CLE
Amari Cooper
WR
227.0SEASON PPR
Jerome Ford
RB
211.2SEASON PPR
David Njoku
TE
201.2SEASON PPR
CIN
Joe Mixon
RB
267.0SEASON PPR
Ja'Marr Chase
WR
262.7SEASON PPR
Joe Burrow
QB
INJURY REPORTWEEK 18
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| CLE@CINW18 2025 | CLE 20, CIN 18 | CIN | L |
| CIN@CLEW1 2025 | CIN 17, CLE 16 | CIN | W |
| CLE@CINW16 2024 | CLE 6, CIN 24 | CIN | W |
| CIN@CLEW7 2024 | CIN 21, CLE 14 | CIN | W |
| CIN@CLEW1 2023 | CIN 3, CLE 24 | CIN | L |
WEEK 18 · OTHER GAMES