Jaguars vs Titans – Week 18 2023
JAX
TEN
JAX
AWAY
20@28
TEN BY 8
FINAL · WEEK 18
2023 SEASON
Nissan Stadium · Nashville, TN
TEN
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Jacksonville Jaguars 20, Tennessee Titans 28.
Going in, our model had favored Jacksonville Jaguars at 70% win probability, and the pick lost.
Out or doubtful: 4 Titans.
Model confidence: JAX 70%Our line: JAX -6.9
ODDS
SPREAD
JAX -3.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
JAX -6.9
OUR LINE
MISSED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
JAX · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
70%
TEAM COMPARISON2023 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 18
-0.034Net EPA / play-0.055
-0.070 (21)Offense EPA / play-0.047 (18)
-0.036 (16)Defense EPA / play+0.007 (23)
42.1% (15)Offense success %39.7% (26)
GAME NARRATIVE
JAX B-tier pick misses. TEN takes it.
MISSED
Model picked JAX but TEN won. Projected margin was 6.9, the model overestimated by 14.9 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 2 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 11.5 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
JAX
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)Road Favorite 3-2 ATS (60%)
TEN
Home Underdog 4-2 ATS (67%)Divisional 1-5 ATS (17%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
41°F
WIND
11 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2023 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2023 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 18
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| TEN@JAXW18 2025 | TEN 7, JAX 41 | JAX | W |
| JAX@TENW13 2025 | JAX 25, TEN 3 | JAX | W |
| TEN@JAXW17 2024 | TEN 13, JAX 20 | JAX | W |
| JAX@TENW14 2024 | JAX 10, TEN 6 | JAX | W |
| TEN@JAXW11 2023 | TEN 14, JAX 34 | JAX | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 18 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSJAX vs TEN
Our model takes Jacksonville Jaguars at 70% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project JAX by 6.9. The market has JAX at -3.5.
Tennessee Titans won, JAX 20, TEN 28. Our model had favored Jacksonville Jaguars at 70% win probability, and the pick lost.
The market has Jacksonville Jaguars at -3.5, meaning the book expects Jacksonville Jaguars to win by 3.5 points.
In Week 18, the Tennessee Titans were without 4 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 41.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 46.0, 4.5 above the market.
Week 18 of the 2023 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Jacksonville Jaguars, TEN 7, JAX 41 in Week 18 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2023 season, Jacksonville Jaguars: JAX -0.034 against TEN -0.055.
