2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
JAX @ TEN – Week 18 2023
JAX
TEN
JAX
AWAY
20@28
TEN +8
FINAL · WEEK 18
2023 SEASON
TEN
HOME
TIER B
PICK: JAX
PICK LOSTATS ✗
Model confidence: JAX 70%Projected margin: -4.6
JAX
PICK SIDE
-3.5
SPREAD
-4.6
PROJ MARGIN
-165
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
JAX B-tier pick misses. TEN takes it.
MISSED
Model picked JAX but TEN won. Projected margin was 4.6 -- the model overestimated by 12.6 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 2 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 11.5 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -3.5 | JAX market line | |
| MODEL ML | -165 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | -185 | Lost · -$1.00 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
JAX
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)Road Favorite 3-2 ATS (60%)
TEN
Home Underdog 4-2 ATS (67%)Divisional 1-5 ATS (17%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
41°F
WIND
11 MPH
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2023 SEASON
JAX
Travis Etienne
RB
282.4SEASON PPR
Trevor Lawrence
QB
262.5SEASON PPR
Evan Engram
TE
230.3SEASON PPR
TEN
Derrick Henry
RB
246.7SEASON PPR
DeAndre Hopkins
WR
223.6SEASON PPR
Tyjae Spears
RB
INJURY REPORTWEEK 18
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| TEN@JAXW18 2025 | TEN 7, JAX 41 | JAX | W |
| JAX@TENW13 2025 | JAX 25, TEN 3 | JAX | W |
| TEN@JAXW17 2024 | TEN 13, JAX 20 | JAX | W |
| JAX@TENW14 2024 | JAX 10, TEN 6 | JAX | W |
| TEN@JAXW11 2023 | TEN 14, JAX 34 | JAX | W |
WEEK 18 · OTHER GAMES