Titans vs Jaguars – Week 17 2024
TEN
JAX
TEN
AWAY
13@20
JAX BY 7
FINAL · WEEK 17
2024 SEASON
EverBank Stadium · Jacksonville, FL
JAX
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Tennessee Titans 13, Jacksonville Jaguars 20.
Going in, our model had favored Jacksonville Jaguars at 67% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 4 Titans, 3 Jaguars.
Model confidence: JAX 67%Our line: JAX -6.0
ODDS
SPREAD
JAX +1.0
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
JAX -6.0
OUR LINE
COVERED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
JAX · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
67%
TEAM COMPARISON2024 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 17
-0.146Net EPA / play-0.149
-0.116 (30)Offense EPA / play-0.020 (18)
+0.030 (21)Defense EPA / play+0.129 (31)
39.9% (29)Offense success %41.5% (21)
GAME NARRATIVE
JAX B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
NAILED IT
Model projected JAX by 6.0. Actual: 7 points. The model was within 1.0 points of the real margin.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 2 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 8.0 points.
HIGH WIND
16 MPH winds at game time. Expect suppressed passing efficiency and lower scoring.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
TEN
divisional 1-5 ATS (17%)Divisional 1-5 ATS (17%)
JAX
divisional 5-1 ATS (83%)home_underdog 4-1 ATS (80%)Divisional 5-1 ATS (83%)Home Underdog 4-1 ATS (80%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
72°F
WIND
16 MPH
WINDY
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2024 SEASON
JAX
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2024 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 17
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| TEN@JAXW18 2025 | TEN 7, JAX 41 | JAX | W |
| JAX@TENW13 2025 | JAX 25, TEN 3 | JAX | W |
| JAX@TENW14 2024 | JAX 10, TEN 6 | JAX | W |
| JAX@TENW18 2023 | JAX 20, TEN 28 | JAX | L |
| TEN@JAXW11 2023 | TEN 14, JAX 34 | JAX | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 17 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSTEN vs JAX
Our model takes Jacksonville Jaguars at 67% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project JAX by 6.0. The market has JAX at +1.0.
Jacksonville Jaguars won, TEN 13, JAX 20. Our model had favored Jacksonville Jaguars at 67% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Jacksonville Jaguars at +1.0, meaning the book expects Jacksonville Jaguars to win by 1.0 points.
In Week 17, the Tennessee Titans were without 4 players (Out or Doubtful) and the Jacksonville Jaguars were without 3 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 38.0 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 45.2, 7.2 above the market.
Week 17 of the 2024 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Jacksonville Jaguars, TEN 7, JAX 41 in Week 18 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2024 season, Tennessee Titans: TEN -0.146 against JAX -0.149.
