JAX @ TEN – Week 10 2026
JAX
TEN
JAX
AWAY
OUR PICK
@
SUN 1:00 PM
WEEK 10 · 2026 SEASON
TEN
HOME
Model confidence: JAX 79%Projected margin: -9.0
JAX
PICK SIDE
—
SPREAD
-9.0
PROJ MARGIN
—
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
TEAM COMPARISON2025 SEASON
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2025 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
+0.136Net EPA / play-0.260
+0.030Offense EPA / play-0.160
-0.105Defense EPA / play+0.100
44.4%Offense success %37.4%
41.3%Defense success %
PROJECTED MARGINEVERY OUTCOME THE MODEL CONSIDERS LIKELY
GAME NARRATIVE
Early forecast: JAX at 79%, backed by epa edge.
EPA EDGE
JAX generates 0.030 EPA/play on offense. TEN's defense allows 0.100. That's a top-tier efficiency gap.
H2H EDGE
JAX has won 4 of the last 5 meetings against TEN.
DRIVE EFF
JAX scores 2.0 points per drive vs 1.0 for TEN. That's a substantial offensive rhythm gap.
BLOWOUT PROJ
Model projects a 9.0-point margin.
Multiple signals align in JAX's favor. One of the cleaner setups on the slate.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | — | JAX market line | |
| MONEYLINE | Moneyline not recorded for this game | ||
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2025 SEASON
JAX
T.Lawrence
QB
338.2SEASON PPR
T.Etienne
RB
253.9SEASON PPR
P.Washington
WR
184.7SEASON PPR
TEN
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2025 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Jacksonville JaguarsPASSING
T.Lawrence4007 yd · 29 TD · 12 INT
RUSHING
T.Etienne1107 yd · 7 TD
T.Lawrence359 yd · 9 TD
B.Tuten307 yd · 5 TD
RECEIVING
P.Washington58 rec · 847 yd · 5 TD
B.Thomas48 rec · 707 yd · 2 TD
B.Strange46 rec · 540 yd · 3 TD
J.Meyers42 rec · 483 yd · 3 TD
VS
4,007PASSyds3,169
1,773RUSH
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| TEN@JAXW12 2026 | — | JAX | — |
| TEN@JAXW18 2025 | TEN 7, JAX 41 | JAX | W |
| JAX@TENW13 2025 | JAX 25, TEN 3 | JAX | W |
| TEN@JAXW17 2024 | TEN 13, JAX 20 | JAX | W |
| JAX@TENW14 2024 | JAX 10, TEN 6 | JAX | W |
COMMON QUESTIONSJAX vs TEN
Who is favored in Jacksonville Jaguars at Tennessee Titans?
Our model takes Jacksonville Jaguars at 79% win probability. The margin models project JAX by 9.0. No betting line has been posted for this game yet, so this is an early forecast that regenerates every Wednesday.
When do the Jacksonville Jaguars and Tennessee Titans play?
Week 10 of the 2026 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Who won the last Jacksonville Jaguars vs Tennessee Titans game?
Jacksonville Jaguars, 7-41 in Week 18 of 2025.
Which team has been better, the Jacksonville Jaguars or the Tennessee Titans?
By net EPA per play over the 2025 season, Jacksonville Jaguars: JAX +0.136 against TEN -0.260.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake — plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
