LAC @ BAL – Week 10 2026
LAC
BAL
LAC
AWAY
@
MON 8:15 PM
WEEK 10 · 2026 SEASON
BAL
HOME
OUR PICK
Model confidence: BAL 61%Projected margin: -2.0
BAL
PICK SIDE
—
SPREAD
-2.0
PROJ MARGIN
—
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
TEAM COMPARISON2025 SEASON
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2025 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
+0.059Net EPA / play+0.010
-0.024Offense EPA / play+0.034
-0.083Defense EPA / play+0.024
43.1%Offense success %44.6%
41.4%Defense success %
PROJECTED MARGINEVERY OUTCOME THE MODEL CONSIDERS LIKELY
WHY THIS PICK
BAL is our early forecast in LAC @ BAL (Week 10, 2026). The model assigns 61.4% confidence and projects BAL by 2.0. No betting line has been posted for this game yet, so the model re-runs this forecast every Wednesday as the season plays out.
MODEL CONVICTION
High. The model is fully behind this side.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | — | BAL market line | |
| MONEYLINE | Moneyline not recorded for this game | ||
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2025 SEASON
LAC
J.Herbert
QB
286.9SEASON PPR
K.Allen
WR
182.7SEASON PPR
L.McConkey
WR
180.9SEASON PPR
BAL
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2025 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Los Angeles ChargersPASSING
J.Herbert3727 yd · 26 TD · 13 INT
RUSHING
K.Vidal643 yd · 3 TD
O.Hampton545 yd · 4 TD
J.Herbert498 yd · 2 TD
RECEIVING
L.McConkey66 rec · 789 yd · 6 TD
K.Allen81 rec · 777 yd · 4 TD
Q.Johnston51 rec · 735 yd · 8 TD
O.Gadsden49 rec · 664 yd · 3 TD
VS
3,727PASSyds2,549
1,686RUSHyds
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 3 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| BAL@LACW12 2024 | BAL 30, LAC 23 | BAL | W |
| BAL@LACW12 2023 | BAL 20, LAC 10 | BAL | W |
| LAC@BALW6 2021 | LAC 6, BAL 34 | BAL | W |
COMMON QUESTIONSLAC vs BAL
Who is favored in Los Angeles Chargers at Baltimore Ravens?
Our model takes Baltimore Ravens at 61% win probability. The margin models project BAL by 2.0. No betting line has been posted for this game yet, so this is an early forecast that regenerates every Wednesday.
When do the Los Angeles Chargers and Baltimore Ravens play?
Week 10 of the 2026 season, MON 8:15 PM.
Who won the last Los Angeles Chargers vs Baltimore Ravens game?
Baltimore Ravens, 30-23 in Week 12 of 2024.
Which team has been better, the Los Angeles Chargers or the Baltimore Ravens?
By net EPA per play over the 2025 season, Los Angeles Chargers: LAC +0.059 against BAL +0.010.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake — plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
