TEAM COMPARISON2026 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES
+0.060Net EPA / play-0.001
-0.073 (25)Offense EPA / play+0.004 (14)
-0.133 (2)Defense EPA / play+0.005 (19)
41.5% (22)Offense success %42.6% (17)
PROJECTED MARGINHOW THE FINAL SCORE COULD LAND
WHY THIS PICK
SEA is our early forecast in SEA @ LV (Week 10, 2026). The model assigns 70% confidence and projects SEA by 7.3. No betting line has been posted for this game yet, so the model re-runs this forecast every Wednesday as the season plays out.
MODEL AGREEMENT
All three models picked this side. The tier above is a separate read: it reflects how big a margin they project, not how many agreed.
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
Our model takes Seattle Seahawks at 70% win probability. The margin models project SEA by 7.3. No betting line has been posted for this game yet, so this is an early forecast that regenerates every Wednesday.
Our model favors Seattle Seahawks at 70% win probability.
No betting line has been posted for this game yet.
Week 10 of the 2026 season, SUN 4:05 PM.
Las Vegas Raiders, LV 40, SEA 34 in Week 12 of 2022.
By net EPA per play over the 2026 season, Seattle Seahawks: SEA +0.060 against LV -0.001.
WIN % is each book’s odds as a win chance, with the book’s cut taken out. The card above is their average. Last synced Wed 8:00 PM ET.
OPEN · CURRENT · MODEL
MARKET
OPEN
CURRENT
MODEL
SPREAD
LV +7.0
LV +7.0
LV +7.3
MONEYLINE
LV +250
LV +260
LV +239
LV's moneyline moved from +250 to +260 since it opened.
OPEN is the first price we recorded, not necessarily the true market opener. OPEN and CURRENT are the median across books, rounded to the half point. CURRENT excludes any price posted after kickoff.
38.3% (2)Defense success %44.9% (25)
+0.052 (16)Pass EPA / play+0.161 (9)
-0.218 (30)Rush EPA / play-0.224 (31)
26.8 (8)Points / game26.4 (9)
21.0 (8)Points allowed / game25.8 (22)
53.7%Pass rate59.3%
75.0%Red zone TD %64.3%
16.7%4th down go %21.6%
SeahawksRaiders
Likely final margins. Each team's shaded area is its win probability and the marker is our line. Four times in five the real margin lands between Seahawks by 25 and Raiders by 10. The peak is where we lean, not a forecast of the score.