MIA @ IND – Week 10 2026
MIA
IND
MIA
AWAY
@
SUN 1:00 PM
WEEK 10 · 2026 SEASON
IND
HOME
OUR PICK
Model confidence: IND 61%Projected margin: -1.2
IND
PICK SIDE
—
SPREAD
-1.2
PROJ MARGIN
—
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
TEAM COMPARISON2025 SEASON
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2025 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
-0.105Net EPA / play+0.068
-0.017Offense EPA / play+0.072
+0.088Defense EPA / play+0.004
41.9%Offense success %46.3%
48.5%Defense success %
PROJECTED MARGINEVERY OUTCOME THE MODEL CONSIDERS LIKELY
GAME NARRATIVE
Early forecast: IND at 61%, backed by epa edge.
EPA EDGE
IND generates 0.072 EPA/play on offense. MIA's defense allows 0.088. That's a top-tier efficiency gap.
AGGRESSIVE 4TH
IND goes for it on 4th down 26% of the time -- among the most aggressive in the NFL.
DRIVE EFF
IND scores 2.2 points per drive vs 1.5 for MIA. That's a substantial offensive rhythm gap.
Net-positive signal profile for IND. This forecast updates every Wednesday as the season plays out.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | — | IND market line | |
| MONEYLINE | Moneyline not recorded for this game | ||
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2025 SEASON
MIA
D.Achane
RB
322.8SEASON PPR
J.Waddle
WR
194.1SEASON PPR
T.Tagovailoa
QB
160.7SEASON PPR
IND
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2025 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Miami DolphinsPASSING
T.Tagovailoa2660 yd · 20 TD · 15 INT
RUSHING
D.Achane1350 yd · 8 TD
J.Wright288 yd · 2 TD
O.Gordon199 yd · 3 TD
RECEIVING
J.Waddle64 rec · 910 yd · 6 TD
D.Achane67 rec · 488 yd · 4 TD
G.Dulcich26 rec · 335 yd · 1 TD
M.Washington46 rec · 317 yd · 3 TD
VS
2,660PASSyds3,101
1,837RUSHyds
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 3 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| MIA@INDW1 2025 | MIA 8, IND 33 | IND | W |
| MIA@INDW7 2024 | MIA 10, IND 16 | IND | W |
| IND@MIAW4 2021 | IND 27, MIA 17 | IND | W |
COMMON QUESTIONSMIA vs IND
Who is favored in Miami Dolphins at Indianapolis Colts?
Our model takes Indianapolis Colts at 61% win probability. The margin models project IND by 1.2. No betting line has been posted for this game yet, so this is an early forecast that regenerates every Wednesday.
When do the Miami Dolphins and Indianapolis Colts play?
Week 10 of the 2026 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Who won the last Miami Dolphins vs Indianapolis Colts game?
Indianapolis Colts, 8-33 in Week 1 of 2025.
Which team has been better, the Miami Dolphins or the Indianapolis Colts?
By net EPA per play over the 2025 season, Indianapolis Colts: MIA -0.105 against IND +0.068.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake — plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
