Dolphins vs Colts – Week 10 2026
MIA
IND
MIA
AWAY
@
SUN 1:00 PM
WEEK 10 · 2026 SEASON
Lucas Oil Stadium · Indianapolis, IN
IND
HOME
OUR PICK
THE SHORT ANSWER
Our model favors the Colts over the Dolphins at 69% win probability. No betting line has been posted for this game yet.
Model confidence: IND 69%Our line: IND -6.7
80% range around our line: MIA by 11 to IND by 24. Four games in five land inside it.
Betting the IND game? Pro shows whether we flag it as a bet, at what price, and your stake at your unit size →
ODDS
SPREAD
IND —
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
IND -6.7
OUR LINE
MONEYLINE
IND · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
69%
IND · MARKET WIN PROBABILITY
73%
DIFFERENCE
-4%
| SPORTSBOOK | MIA | IND | IND WIN % |
|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | +245 | -305 |
PREGAME SNAPSHOTWEEK 10 · WHAT MATTERS AT KICKOFF
TEAM COMPARISON2026 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES
-0.224Net EPA / play-0.150
-0.116 (29)Offense EPA / play-0.051 (22)
+0.108 (28)Defense EPA / play+0.099 (27)
37.6% (30)Offense success %42.2% (19)
PROJECTED MARGINHOW THE FINAL SCORE COULD LAND
GAME NARRATIVE
Early forecast: model favors IND at 69%.
AGGRESSIVE 4TH
IND goes for it on 4th down 28% of the time, among the most aggressive in the NFL.
RED ZONE
IND converts 78% in the red zone vs 50% for MIA. That efficiency gap matters in close games.
Net-positive signal profile for IND. This forecast updates every Wednesday as the season plays out.
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2026 SEASON
IND
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2026 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Miami DolphinsPASSING
M.Willis849 yd · 2 TD · 4 INT
RECEIVING
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 3 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| MIA@INDW1 2025 | MIA 8, IND 33 | IND | W |
| MIA@INDW7 2024 | MIA 10, IND 16 | IND | W |
| IND@MIAW4 2021 | IND 27, MIA 17 | IND | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 10 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSMIA vs IND
Our model takes Indianapolis Colts at 69% win probability. The margin models project IND by 6.7. No betting line has been posted for this game yet, so this is an early forecast that regenerates every Wednesday.
Our model favors Indianapolis Colts at 69% win probability.
No betting line has been posted for this game yet.
Week 10 of the 2026 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Indianapolis Colts, MIA 8, IND 33 in Week 1 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2026 season, Indianapolis Colts: MIA -0.224 against IND -0.150.
