NE @ DET – Week 10 2026
NE
DET
NE
AWAY
OUR PICK
@
SUN 9:30 AM
WEEK 10 · 2026 SEASON
DET
HOME
Model confidence: NE 63%Projected margin: -2.3
NE
PICK SIDE
-1.5
SPREAD
-2.3
PROJ MARGIN
-124
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
TEAM COMPARISON2025 SEASON
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2025 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
+0.205Net EPA / play+0.091
+0.158Offense EPA / play+0.081
-0.047Defense EPA / play-0.010
48.4%Offense success %45.2%
44.6%Defense success %
PROJECTED MARGINEVERY OUTCOME THE MODEL CONSIDERS LIKELY
GAME NARRATIVE
NE backed by epa edge at 63%.
EPA EDGE
NE generates 0.158 EPA/play on offense. DET's defense allows -0.010. That's a top-tier efficiency gap.
HIGH CONVICTION
NE is one of the model's highest-conviction calls. Its strongest calls hit at a significantly higher rate.
Net-positive signal profile for NE. Grade: B.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -1.5 | NE market line | |
| MODEL ML | -124 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML |
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2025 SEASON
NE
D.Maye
QB
352.0SEASON PPR
S.Diggs
WR
210.3SEASON PPR
T.Henderson
RB
206.2SEASON PPR
DET
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2025 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
New England PatriotsPASSING
D.Maye4394 yd · 31 TD · 8 INT
RUSHING
T.Henderson911 yd · 9 TD
R.Stevenson603 yd · 7 TD
D.Maye450 yd · 4 TD
RECEIVING
S.Diggs85 rec · 1013 yd · 4 TD
H.Henry60 rec · 768 yd · 7 TD
K.Boutte33 rec · 551 yd · 6 TD
M.Hollins46 rec · 550 yd · 2 TD
VS
4,394PASSyds4,564
1,964RUSHyds
COMMON QUESTIONSNE vs DET
Who is favored in New England Patriots at Detroit Lions?
Our model takes New England Patriots at 63% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project NE by 2.3. The market has NE at -1.5.
When do the New England Patriots and Detroit Lions play?
Week 10 of the 2026 season, SUN 9:30 AM.
Who won the last New England Patriots vs Detroit Lions game?
New England Patriots, 0-29 in Week 5 of 2022.
Which team has been better, the New England Patriots or the Detroit Lions?
By net EPA per play over the 2025 season, New England Patriots: NE +0.205 against DET +0.091.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake — plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
