2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
DET @ NE – Week 5 2022
DET
NE
DET
AWAY
0@29
NE +29
FINAL · WEEK 5
2022 SEASON
NE
HOME
TIER B
PICK: NE
PICK WONATS ✓
Model confidence: NE 67%Projected margin: 4.4
NE
PICK SIDE
-3.0
SPREAD
4.4
PROJ MARGIN
-154
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
COVERED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
NE B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked NE. Projected margin: 4.4. Actual: 29. Off by 24.6 points but directionally right.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 26.0 points.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -3.0 | NE market line | |
| MODEL ML | -154 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | -148 | Won · +$0.65 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
DET
Divisional 6-0 ATS (100%)Home Underdog 4-1 ATS (80%)
NE
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2022 SEASON
DET
Jared Goff
QB
284.3SEASON PPR
Amon-Ra St. Brown
WR
267.6SEASON PPR
Jamaal Williams
RB
225.9SEASON PPR
NE
Rhamondre Stevenson
RB
249.1SEASON PPR
Jakobi Meyers
WR
182.3SEASON PPR
Mac Jones
INJURY REPORTWEEK 5
WEEK 5 · OTHER GAMES