2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
PHI @ ARI – Week 5 2022
PHI
ARI
PHI
AWAY
20@17
PHI +3
FINAL · WEEK 5
2022 SEASON
ARI
HOME
TIER B
PICK: PHI
PICK WONATS ✗
Model confidence: PHI 65%Projected margin: -3.5
PHI
PICK SIDE
-5.5
SPREAD
-3.5
PROJ MARGIN
-221
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
PHI B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
NAILED IT
Model projected PHI by 3.5. Actual: 3 points. The model was within 0.5 points of the real margin.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 2.5 points.
DRAMATIC
The win probability swung past 50% 1 time. A competitive game throughout.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -5.5 | PHI market line | |
| MODEL ML | -221 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | -222 | Won · +$0.45 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
PHI
Road Favorite 2-5 ATS (29%)
ARI
Divisional 1-5 ATS (17%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2022 SEASON
PHI
Jalen Hurts
QB
378.0SEASON PPR
A.J. Brown
WR
299.6SEASON PPR
DeVonta Smith
WR
256.6SEASON PPR
ARI
Kyler Murray
QB
200.5SEASON PPR
James Conner
RB
200.2SEASON PPR
Marquise Brown
WR
INJURY REPORTWEEK 5
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| ARI@PHIW17 2023 | ARI 35, PHI 31 | PHI | L |
| PHI@ARIW15 2020 | PHI 26, ARI 33 | ARI | W |
WEEK 5 · OTHER GAMES