Falcons vs Buccaneers – Week 5 2022
ATL
TB
ATL
AWAY
15@21
TB BY 6
FINAL · WEEK 5
2022 SEASON
Raymond James Stadium · Tampa, FL
TB
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Atlanta Falcons 15, Tampa Bay Buccaneers 21.
Going in, our model had favored Tampa Bay Buccaneers at 69% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 1 Falcons, 3 Buccaneers.
Model confidence: TB 69%Our line: TB -6.6
ODDS
SPREAD
TB -10.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
TB -6.6
OUR LINE
MISSED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
TB · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
69%
TEAM COMPARISON2022 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 5
-0.075Net EPA / play-0.013
+0.005 (14)Offense EPA / play-0.038 (21)
+0.080 (31)Defense EPA / play-0.025 (12)
45.5% (10)Offense success %43.8% (20)
GAME NARRATIVE
TB B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
NAILED IT
Model projected TB by 6.6. Actual: 6 points. The model was within 0.6 points of the real margin.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 2 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 4.5 points.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
ATL
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)Home Underdog 3-2 ATS (60%)
TB
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)Road Favorite 2-4 ATS (33%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2022 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2022 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 5
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| ATL@TBW15 2025 | ATL 29, TB 28 | TB | L |
| TB@ATLW1 2025 | TB 23, ATL 20 | TB | W |
| ATL@TBW8 2024 | ATL 31, TB 26 | TB | L |
| TB@ATLW5 2024 | TB 30, ATL 36 | ATL | W |
| TB@ATLW14 2023 | TB 29, ATL 25 | ATL | L |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 5 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSATL vs TB
Our model takes Tampa Bay Buccaneers at 69% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project TB by 6.6. The market has TB at -10.5.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers won, ATL 15, TB 21. Our model had favored Tampa Bay Buccaneers at 69% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Tampa Bay Buccaneers at -10.5, meaning the book expects Tampa Bay Buccaneers to win by 10.5 points.
In Week 5, the Atlanta Falcons were without 1 player (Out or Doubtful) and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers were without 3 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 46.0 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 47.0, 1.0 above the market.
Week 5 of the 2022 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Atlanta Falcons, ATL 29, TB 28 in Week 15 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2022 season, Tampa Bay Buccaneers: ATL -0.075 against TB -0.013.
